Carlton vs Melbourne Prediction

Carlton’s Horror Run Meets Melbourne’s MCG Momentum

Home • $1.58

Away • $2.40

Saturday • MCG • Patchy rain, 12 km/h winds

Here’s a stat that’ll make Blues fans wince – Carlton have lost four straight and been held to 66 points or fewer in three of them. That’s relegation form in any other sport.

Meanwhile, Melbourne just snapped their own five-game losing streak with a percentage-boosting 119-83 demolition of North Melbourne.

So which team’s form line do we trust when they clash at the MCG on Saturday night?

The last time these two met, Carlton escaped by a single point in one of the season’s best finishes.

Christian Petracca kicked five goals that day and nearly won it in the dying seconds before Nic Newman and Patrick Cripps combined for a match-saving tackle.

But that was back when Carlton could actually score – they’ve managed just one win in their last nine games since.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, three bets stand out from this clash. Carlton’s scoring woes are impossible to ignore – they’re averaging just 64.5 points across their last four losses.

Meanwhile, Melbourne’s attack clicked beautifully last week with Jake Melksham continuing his hot streak (14 goals in three games).

The line feels about right, but the total? That’s where I see value.

BEST BET

Melbourne head-to-head

$1.58

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VALUE BET

Under 164.5 total points

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

Carlton +9.5

$1.90

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Look, I’ve been tracking scoring patterns all season and this matchup screams low-scoring affair.

Carlton’s attack has gone missing – they’re scoring 15 points below their season average recently.

Add in the forecast for patchy rain and 12 km/h winds at the MCG, and suddenly that 164.5 total looks very generous.

Our Data Says: Carlton 72, Melbourne 75 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Melbourne a 55.2% win chance, Carlton 44.8%

Bookmakers have Melbourne at $1.58 (63.3% implied) vs Carlton at $2.40 (41.7% implied)

The Market Edge: No significant edge identified – our model shows Carlton at 44.8% vs market’s 41.7% implied chance (3.1% difference)

Our Prediction

CAR 72 | MEL 75

Win Probability

CAR 44.8% | MEL 55.2%

Market Edge

3.1%

on Carlton

FORM LINE

Carlton’s recent form makes for grim reading. They’ve dropped their last four by an average of 40 points, managing just 66, 59, 60 and 73 points in those losses.

The defence has been leaking too – they conceded 103 to Brisbane and 115 to Collingwood in their last two home games. After watching them get held goalless in the third quarter against Brisbane, it’s hard to see where the scoring comes from.

Melbourne bounced back strongly against North Melbourne, but don’t get too excited – their previous four losses came by an average of 14.5 points.

They’ve been competitive without winning, which is actually more encouraging than Carlton’s capitulations. The Demons are averaging 76.8 points across their last five, which isn’t setting the world on fire but looks prolific compared to Carlton’s output.

Carlton Blues

LLLL

Dropped last four by an average of 40 points
Scored 66, 59, 60 and 73 in that stretch

Melbourne Demons

WLLLL

119-83 win over North Melbourne snapped 5-game skid
Previous four losses by average of 14.5 points

KEY STATS

The numbers paint a clear picture of two teams heading in opposite directions. Carlton averages 10.9 goals per game for the season, but that drops to just 9.4 in their last five.

Melbourne’s defensive stats tell the real story though – they’re conceding 4 goals fewer per game than Carlton recently. That’s a 24-point swing right there.

More telling is the efficiency gap. Melbourne’s 73% disposal efficiency towers over Carlton’s 70.2%, and in wet conditions that accuracy becomes crucial.

The Blues actually win more clearances (39.4 to 36.6) but can’t convert that dominance into scoreboard pressure. When you’re getting first use but still losing by 40 points, something’s seriously broken in your ball movement.

AVERAGE POINTS (LAST 5)

Melbourne
76.8

Carlton
64.5

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY (%)

Melbourne
73

Carlton
70.2

AVERAGE CLEARANCES

Carlton
39.4

Melbourne
36.6

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to a grinding, low-scoring affair at the MCG. Carlton’s attack has gone completely off the rails – four straight games under 75 points tells its own story.

Melbourne aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders either, but they’ve found enough spark through Melksham and Fritsch to get the job done.

Throw in the forecast rain and this has under 164.5 written all over it.

Back Melbourne to win ugly in a game that won’t trouble the highlight reels. The under looks the play of the round at $1.88.

LOCK IT IN: Under 164.5 total points @ $1.88

The under looks the play of the round at $1.88.

BET NOW