Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Prediction

Game 1 of Round 13 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on June 5 sees Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Thursday, June 5, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Western Bulldogs

91 : 87

Hawthorn

Win Percentages (Model)

Bulldogs
54.25%

Hawthorn
45.75%

Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head-to-head market at $1.52 for Western Bulldogs and $2.45 for Hawthorn Hawks. Normalising those prices removes the bookmaker edge and gives implied “fair-probability” splits of:

Bulldogs 61.70%
Hawks 38.30%

The Betting Edge

The bookies have priced the Western Bulldogs as favourites at $1.52, which converts to a 61.70% implied chance of victory.
Our model is a touch more conservative, rating the Dogs at 54.25%.

Conversely, Hawthorn sit at $2.45 (38.30% implied), but our numbers give them a healthier 45.75% shot.

That gap hints at value on the Hawks. Based on our projections their “true” odds are closer to $2.19, making the current $2.45 a worthwhile punt if you’re hunting upside.

In short: the market may be slightly over-rating the Bulldogs and under-estimating Hawthorn’s recent improvement.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For: Western Bulldogs 104.64 vs Hawthorn 89.08 — Western Bulldogs by 15.6
Average Points Against: Western Bulldogs 82.73 vs Hawthorn 80.83 — Hawthorn by 2
Power Rank: Western Bulldogs 4 vs Hawthorn 8 — Western Bulldogs by 4
Avg Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs 51.33 vs Hawthorn 32.57 — Western Bulldogs by 18.76
SoS Adjusted PF: Western Bulldogs 103.81 vs Hawthorn 89.12 — Western Bulldogs by 15
Win %: Western Bulldogs 54.55% vs Hawthorn 58.33% — Hawthorn by 4%
Average Opponent Rank: Western Bulldogs 6.6 vs Hawthorn 5.33 — Hawthorn by 1
Average Opponent Win %: Western Bulldogs 53.03% vs Hawthorn 51.29% — Hawthorn by 2%
Average Opponent Points For: Western Bulldogs 93.59 vs Hawthorn 83.28 — Hawthorn by 10
Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs 131.00 vs Hawthorn 124.00 — Western Bulldogs by 7
Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs 127.00 vs Hawthorn 121.00 — Hawthorn by 6
Highest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs 240 vs Hawthorn 212 — Western Bulldogs by 28
Lowest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs 146 vs Hawthorn 140 — Hawthorn by 6
Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs 103.81 vs Hawthorn 89.12 — Western Bulldogs by 15
Adjusted Points Against: Western Bulldogs 92.11 vs Hawthorn 77.71 — Hawthorn by 14
True Power Score (Weighted): Western Bulldogs 4.60 vs Hawthorn 6.80 — Western Bulldogs by 2.2