Sydney vs Adelaide Prediction

Game 5 of Round 12 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 31 sees Sydney vs Adelaide at the SCG on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows Predictions

Saturday, May 31, 2025

7:35 pm AEDT @ the SCG, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Sydney

76 : 91

Adelaide

Win Percentages

Sydney 36.92%

Adelaide 63.08%

Sydney

Adelaide

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Sydney Swans set at $2.20, and $1.64 for the Adelaide Crows, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Swans 42.71%
Crows 57.29%

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Adelaide as the favourites here, with odds of $1.64 giving them a 57.29% implied chance of getting the win. Our prediction backs them in even stronger, with the Crows rated at 63.08%, a fair bit more confident than the market.

Sydney are out at $2.20, which implies a 42.71% chance. But our numbers don’t quite agree, giving the Swans just a 36.92% shot at pulling off the win.

That difference points to value on Adelaide. If our model’s on the money, their true odds should be closer to $1.59, so the $1.640 price tag offers a tidy little edge.

In a game where the market might be slightly underestimating the Crows, Adelaide shapes up as the value play, especially if they bring their recent form to the table.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Sydney vs Adelaide Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide by 21
Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide by 9
Power Rank: Adelaide by 13
Average Winning Margin: Adelaide by 19.64
SoS Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 20
Win Percentage: Adelaide by 27%
Average Opponent Rank: Adelaide by 2
Average Opponent Win %: Sydney by 5%
Average Opponent Points For: Sydney by 10
Highest Score For: Adelaide by 44
Highest Score Against: Adelaide by 12
Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 52
Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide by 47
Adjusted Points For: Adelaide by 20
Adjusted Points Against: Sydney by 2
True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide by 9.8
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 172.3
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Sydney: 6, Adelaide: 9 – (Sydney by 3)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Sydney: 6.17, Adelaide: 12.00 – (Sydney by 5.83)

Over/Under Tempo: High tempo expected. Look for aggressive ball movement and open play as both sides push to assert scoreboard pressure.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Adelaide’s offensive firepower and scoring consistency could overwhelm Sydney unless the Swans can disrupt momentum early.