North Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction

This might surprise a few punters, but our model is throwing a bit of love toward the Kangaroos this round. While Carlton are firm favourites in the market, the numbers paint a much more even contest than the odds suggest.

This is where it gets interesting, the bookies have priced Carlton like they’re a near sure thing at 68.49%, but our model flips that script entirely. We’ve got the Roos slightly ahead with a 52.73% chance of winning.

That’s a massive swing. Based on our analysis, North Melbourne’s true odds should be around $1.90, but the market has them way out at $3.00. That’s some serious value for anyone willing to go against the grain.

This is one of those matchups where the market and the model are miles apart. While Carlton have the name and support, our numbers suggest the Kangaroos are being seriously overlooked, and at $3.00, they represent a massive value bet.

If you’re backing the data, North Melbourne could be the upset of the round. Even the +17.5 line or 1-39 margin is worth a look if you’re feeling bolder than the straight-up win.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne: 88.2, Carlton: 74.2 – (North Melbourne by 14 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne: 110.2, Carlton: 71.6 – (Carlton by 38.6 points)
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne: 59.0, Carlton: 71.0 – (Carlton by 12 points)
• Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne: 42.3, Carlton: 14.5 – (Carlton by 27.8 points)
• HT/FT Double %: North Melbourne: 20.0%, Carlton: 20.0% – (Even)
• Highest Score For: North Melbourne: 125, Carlton: 121 – (North Melbourne by 4 points)
• Highest Score Against: North Melbourne: 141, Carlton: 83 – (Carlton by 58 points)
• Biggest Win: North Melbourne: 59, Carlton: 71 – (Carlton by 12 points)
• Biggest Loss: North Melbourne: 65, Carlton: 20 – (Carlton more resilient by 45 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 230, Carlton: 171 – (North Melbourne by 59 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 169, Carlton: 109 – (North Melbourne by 60 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: North Melbourne: 65.3%, Carlton: 48.6% – (North Melbourne by 16.7%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: North Melbourne: 61.7%, Carlton: 53.7% – (Carlton by 8.0%)
• Current Streak: North Melbourne: L3, Carlton: W1 – (Carlton momentum)
• Current Form: North Melbourne: LWLLL, Carlton: LLLLW – (Carlton edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Carlton: 80.0% – (North Melbourne by 80%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 100.0%, Carlton: 20.0% – (North Melbourne by 80%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Carlton: 0.0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Carlton won by 19 points (107-88) on 21st July 2024