Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies are firmly behind the Hawks here, giving them a whopping 76.19% implied chance of winning. But our model tones that back a bit, still strong, but more realistic, giving Hawthorn a 62.97% win probability. That means while the Hawks are rightly favourites, there’s a clear overpricing in the market, and a touch of value emerging on the Demons at $3.85.

Now, we’re not saying the Dees are expected to win, but our numbers show they’ve got a better shot than the market gives them credit for. If you’re someone who likes backing the undervalued roughie, there’s a small edge in backing Melbourne to cause an upset.

💰 BET MELBOURNE @ $3.85 (vs Hawthorn)

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Average Points For: Hawthorn by 20.4
• Average Points Against: Hawthorn by 16
• Power Rank: Hawthorn by 11 spots
• Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn by 11.5
• Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 17
• Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn by 10
• True Power Score (Weighted): Hawthorn by 10.8
• Win Percentage: Hawthorn by 38%
• Strength of Schedule: Hawthorn by 5 (so they’ve done it against tougher teams)
• Total Power Rank Score: Hawthorn 7.50 vs Melbourne 14.33

Over/Under Tempo: 166.6 – fast-paced, but don’t expect a shootout. Could be a bit scrappy at times.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Hawthorn could run away with this if Melbourne can’t keep up early.

What to do?

Hawthorn are clearly the stronger team on almost every front, higher scoring, tighter defence, stronger recent form, and they’ve been doing it against better opposition. All signs point to the Hawks being in control here.

But… and it’s a decent “but”, the market’s gone a bit too far. While the true win probability sits closer to 63%, the $1.26 odds imply nearly 77%. That means the Demons, priced like they’ve got no chance, actually have more of a sniff than they’re being given.

So if you’re a conservative punter, Hawthorn might be a good anchor in multis. But if you’re hunting value, a cheeky play on Melbourne at $3.85 could pay off bigger than expected, especially if the Hawks stumble or take their foot off the gas.

Look, we don’t think they are going to win, but the line of 23.5 is a little too big for our liking. Take the Melbourne +23.5, or the UNDER 170.5 for a safer bet this game.

In regards to multi bets, go for the Melbourne +23.5, UNDER 170.5, Hawthorn 1-39 winning margin for $5.60.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn by 20.4
• Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn by 16
• Power Rank: Hawthorn by 11
• Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn by 11.50
• Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 17
• Win Percentage: Hawthorn by 38%
• Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Hawthorn by 6
• Average Opponent Win Percentage: Melbourne by 10%
• Average Opponent Points For: Melbourne by 6
• Highest Score For: Hawthorn by 16
• Highest Score Against: Hawthorn by 4
• Highest Total Match Score: Hawthorn by 8
• Lowest Total Match Score: Melbourne by 9
• Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 17
• Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn by 10
• True Power Score (Weighted): Hawthorn by 10.8
• Over/Under Tempo: 166.6
• Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
• Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Melbourne: 11, Hawthorn: 6 – (Hawthorn by 5)
• Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Melbourne: 14.33, Hawthorn: 7.50 – (Hawthorn by 6.83)