Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction

Game 4 of Round 11 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees Hawthorn vs Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions Predictions

Saturday, May 24, 2025

4:15 pm AEDT @ the MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Hawthorn

84 : 82

Brisbane

Win Percentages

Hawthorn 56.24%

Brisbane 43.76%

Hawthorn

Brisbane

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Hawthorn Hawks set at $1.55, and $2.40 for the Brisbane Lions, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Hawthorn 60.76%
Brisbane 39.24%

The Betting Edge

This Hawks vs Lions game is a tight one, and there’s a bit of value bubbling under the surface here.

Unibet has Hawthorn priced at $1.55, giving them an implied probability of 60.76%. Brisbane, meanwhile, are out at $2.40, which puts their implied chance at just 39.24%. But when we run the numbers ourselves, we reckon Brisbane are more in the mix than that, with a solid 43.76% chance of getting the job done, while Hawthorn sit at 56.24%.

That might not seem like a massive difference, but it’s enough to spot some value. If the Lions really do have close to a 44% chance of winning, their true odds should be closer to $2.28, so the $2.40 being offered is a bit of an overreaction from the market.

Brisbane are slightly undervalued here, and if our analysis holds up, there’s a bit of value in backing the Lions at $2.40.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Hawthorn by 7.1
Average Points Against Per Match: Hawthorn by 3.2
Power Rank: Hawthorn by 6
Average Winning Margin: Hawthorn by 12.14
SoS Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 10
Win Percentage: Even
Average Opponent Rank: Even
Average Opponent Win %: Hawthorn by 9%
Average Opponent Points For: Hawthorn by 3
Highest Score For: Hawthorn by 6
Highest Score Against: Brisbane by 16
Highest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 3
Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 25
Adjusted Points For: Hawthorn by 10
Adjusted Points Against: Hawthorn by 8
True Power Score (Weighted): Hawthorn by 3.6
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 168.9
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Hawthorn: 6, Brisbane: 6 – (Even)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Hawthorn: 5.50, Brisbane: 7.33 – (Hawthorn by 1.83)

Over/Under Tempo: Mid-range tempo expected; could fluctuate with moments of open play and periods of congestion.

Game Style Prediction: Struggler duel. Expect an unpredictable clash between two teams battling for rhythm and consistency.

What to do?

Best bet is to take the Brisbane +9.5 this game, all signs indicate this game should be won by a few points so use the +9.5 as a buffer for a sneaky cash grab.

As for multis, take the Brisbane +9.5, UNDER 172.5, Hawthorn 1-39 for $12.50 with Unibet.