GWS vs Fremantle Prediction

Game 5 of Round 10 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees GWS vs Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

GWS GIANTS vs Fremantle Dockers Predictions

Saturday, May 17, 2025

4:15 pm AEDT @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

GWS

79 : 76

Fremantle

Win Percentages

GWS 56.27%

Fremantle 43.73%

GWS

Fremantle

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Geelong Cats set at $1.36, and $3.15 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

GIANTS 69.86%
Dockers 30.14%

The Betting Edge

Unibet’s got the GWS Giants marked as firm favourites at $1.36, giving them an implied win probability of 69.86%. Fremantle are way out at $3.15, with the market suggesting they’ve only got a 30.14% chance.

Our model, however, tells a different story. We’ve got GWS at a 56.27% win probability and the Dockers at a much healthier 43.73%. That’s a significant gap, and it screams value on Fremantle.

The Giants are still favoured, no doubt, but not to the degree the bookies are pricing it. There’s a clear opportunity here if you’re hunting underdog upside.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

GWS vs Fremantle Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: GWS by 4.1 points
Average Points Against Per Match: GWS by 9.8 points
Power Rank: GWS by 6
Average Winning Margin: GWS by 0.35 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: GWS by 3 points
Win %: GWS by 11%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: GWS by 2 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: GWS by 1%
Average Opponent Points For: GWS by 2 points
Highest Score For: GWS by 24 points
Highest Score Against: GWS by 34 points
Highest Total Match Score: Fremantle by 10 points
Lowest Total Match Score: GWS by 41 points
Adjusted Points For: GWS by 3 points
Adjusted Points Against: GWS by 12 points
True Power Score (Weighted): GWS by 4.8
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 163.4
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): GWS: 8.33, Fremantle: 9.00 – (GWS by 0.67)

Over/Under Tempo: A bit sluggish overall; expect a grind rather than a shootout.

Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel. Both sides have moments of brilliance, but this one could be scrappy and low-impact at times.

What to do?

GWS are favourites for a reason, they edge most categories and have shown more consistency. But at $1.36, the value just isn’t there. The market’s giving them way too much credit compared to what the numbers say.

On the flip side, Fremantle at $3.15? Now that’s a price worth your attention. Our model puts them at nearly a 44% chance, which makes them a clear value play. If you’re chasing a high-upside roughie, the Dockers are your go.

Best bet is to take the Dockers +18.5 with this one, also looking at the UNDER is n excellent way to go.

As for multis, take the Fremantle +18.5, UNDER 174.5, GWS 1-39 for $7.00 with Unibet.