Game 5 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees GWS vs Fremantle at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
GWS GIANTS vs Fremantle Dockers Predictions
Saturday, May 17, 2026
4:15 pm AEDT @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
Final Score Prediction
GWS
79 : 76
Fremantle
Win Percentages
GWS56.27%
Fremantle43.73%
GWS
Fremantle
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Geelong Cats set at $1.36, and $3.15 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
GIANTS
69.86%
Dockers
30.14%
The Betting Edge
Unibet’s got the GWS Giants marked as firm favourites at $1.36, giving them an implied win probability of 69.86%. Fremantle are way out at $3.15, with the market suggesting they’ve only got a 30.14% chance.
Our model, however, tells a different story. We’ve got GWS at a 56.27% win probability and the Dockers at a much healthier 43.73%. That’s a significant gap, and it screams value on Fremantle.
The Giants are still favoured, no doubt, but not to the degree the bookies are pricing it. There’s a clear opportunity here if you’re hunting underdog upside.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
GWS vs Fremantle Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match: GWS by 4.1 points
Average Points Against Per Match: GWS by 9.8 points
Power Rank: GWS by 6
Average Winning Margin: GWS by 0.35 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: GWS by 3 points
Win %: GWS by 11%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: GWS by 2 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: GWS by 1%
Average Opponent Points For: GWS by 2 points
Highest Score For: GWS by 24 points
Highest Score Against: GWS by 34 points
Highest Total Match Score: Fremantle by 10 points
Lowest Total Match Score: GWS by 41 points
Adjusted Points For: GWS by 3 points
Adjusted Points Against: GWS by 12 points
True Power Score (Weighted): GWS by 4.8
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 163.4
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): GWS: 8.33, Fremantle: 9.00 – (GWS by 0.67)
Over/Under Tempo: A bit sluggish overall; expect a grind rather than a shootout.
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel. Both sides have moments of brilliance, but this one could be scrappy and low-impact at times.
What to do?
GWS are favourites for a reason, they edge most categories and have shown more consistency. But at $1.36, the value just isn’t there. The market’s giving them way too much credit compared to what the numbers say.
On the flip side, Fremantle at $3.15? Now that’s a price worth your attention. Our model puts them at nearly a 44% chance, which makes them a clear value play. If you’re chasing a high-upside roughie, the Dockers are your go.
Best bet is to take the Dockers +18.5 with this one, also looking at the UNDER is n excellent way to go.
As for multis, take the Fremantle +18.5, UNDER 174.5, GWS 1-39 for $7.00 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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