Carlton vs GWS Prediction

Game 3 of Round 11 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees Carlton vs GWS at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Carlton Blues vs GWS GIANTS Predictions

Saturday, May 24, 2025

12:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Carlton

75 : 82

GWS

Win Percentages

Carlton 47.77%

GWS 52.23%

Carlton

GWS

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Carlton Blues set at $1.70, and $2.10 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Blues 55.26%
GIANTS 44.74%

The Betting Edge

This Carlton vs GWS matchup is shaping up to be a close one, but there’s a sneaky bit of value hiding in the odds.

The bookies have Carlton as the favourites with an implied probability of 55.26%, while GWS are sitting at 44.74%. But according to our analysis, it’s actually the GIANTS who have the upper hand with a 52.23% chance of coming out on top, compared to Carlton’s 47.77%.

That flip in the probabilities creates a tidy little edge. Based on our numbers, GWS should be priced closer to $1.91, but the bookies are giving us $2.10. That’s overs, and that’s where the value lies.

If our read is right, GWS are more likely to win than the market believes, which makes backing them at $2.10 a smart play.

The GIANTS are undervalued, and there’s a solid opportunity to get behind them at those juicy odds.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Carlton vs GWS Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: GWS by 3.4
Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 2.8
Power Rank: GWS by 1
Average Winning Margin: Carlton by 12.90
SoS Adjusted Points For: GWS by 4
Win Percentage: GWS by 10%
Average Opponent Rank: GWS by 3
Average Opponent Win %: Carlton by 5%
Average Opponent Points For: GWS by 1
Highest Score For: Carlton by 21
Highest Score Against: Carlton by 3
Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 18
Lowest Total Match Score: GWS by 23
Adjusted Points For: GWS by 4
Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 3
True Power Score (Weighted): GWS by 1.6
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 155.2
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Carlton: 10, GWS: 7 – (GWS by 3)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Carlton: 6.67, GWS: 9.83 – (Carlton by 3.16)

Over/Under Tempo: Low tempo expected; game may lack flow and struggle to reach high scores.

Game Style Prediction: Struggler duel. Expect a scrappy contest between inconsistent sides with unpredictable momentum.

What to do?

Best bet is to take the GIANTS +4.5, it should be a super close game so this will create the buffer that should get them over the edge if Blues do manage to win by a few points.

As for multis, take the GIANTS +4.5, UNDER 169.5, GIANTS 1-39 for $4.50 with Unibet.