AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
Carlton vs GWS Prediction
Game 3 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees Carlton vs GWS at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Carlton Blues vs GWS GIANTS Predictions
Saturday, May 24, 2026
12:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
75 : 82
Win Percentages
Carlton 47.77%
GWS 52.23%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Carlton Blues set at $1.70, and $2.10 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
This Carlton vs GWS matchup is shaping up to be a close one, but there’s a sneaky bit of value hiding in the odds.
The bookies have Carlton as the favourites with an implied probability of 55.26%, while GWS are sitting at 44.74%. But according to our analysis, it’s actually the GIANTS who have the upper hand with a 52.23% chance of coming out on top, compared to Carlton’s 47.77%.
That flip in the probabilities creates a tidy little edge. Based on our numbers, GWS should be priced closer to $1.91, but the bookies are giving us $2.10. That’s overs, and that’s where the value lies.
If our read is right, GWS are more likely to win than the market believes, which makes backing them at $2.10 a smart play.
The GIANTS are undervalued, and there’s a solid opportunity to get behind them at those juicy odds.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Carlton vs GWS Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: GWS by 3.4
- Average Points Against Per Match: Carlton by 2.8
- Power Rank: GWS by 1
- Average Winning Margin: Carlton by 12.90
- SoS Adjusted Points For: GWS by 4
- Win Percentage: GWS by 10%
- Average Opponent Rank: GWS by 3
- Average Opponent Win %: Carlton by 5%
- Average Opponent Points For: GWS by 1
- Highest Score For: Carlton by 21
- Highest Score Against: Carlton by 3
- Highest Total Match Score: Carlton by 18
- Lowest Total Match Score: GWS by 23
- Adjusted Points For: GWS by 4
- Adjusted Points Against: Carlton by 3
- True Power Score (Weighted): GWS by 1.6
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 155.2
- Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Carlton: 10, GWS: 7 – (GWS by 3)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Carlton: 6.67, GWS: 9.83 – (Carlton by 3.16)
Over/Under Tempo: Low tempo expected; game may lack flow and struggle to reach high scores.
Game Style Prediction: Struggler duel. Expect a scrappy contest between inconsistent sides with unpredictable momentum.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the GIANTS +4.5, it should be a super close game so this will create the buffer that should get them over the edge if Blues do manage to win by a few points.
As for multis, take the GIANTS +4.5, UNDER 169.5, GIANTS 1-39 for $4.50 with Unibet.
Carlton vs GWS Betting Tips
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