Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction

Game 1 of Round 12 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 29 sees Brisbane vs Essendon at the Gabba on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers Predictions

Thursday, May 29, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ the Gabba, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Brisbane

84 : 70

Essendon

Win Percentages

Brisbane 58.24%

Essendon 41.76%

Brisbane

Essendon

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Brisbane Lions set at $1.07, and $7.00 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Lions 86.74%
Bombers 13.26%

The Betting Edge

The bookies are giving Brisbane a massive edge in this one, pricing them at $1.07, which implies an 86.74% chance of winning. Our model still has the Lions in front, but at a more measured 58.24%, which suggests the market might be overhyping their dominance.

On the other side, Essendon are out at $7.00, implying just a 13.26% chance. But our prediction gives them a much more competitive 41.76%, a big gap compared to the odds.

That kind of difference creates serious value on the Bombers. If our numbers are anywhere close, their true odds should be around $2.39. So that $7.00 price looks like serious overs.

Brisbane are definitely the stronger side here, but the market might be writing off Essendon way too quickly. If you’re looking for a long-odds punt with genuine upside, the Bombers might just be worth a crack.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Brisbane vs Essendon Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane by 13.7
Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane by 9.7
Power Rank: Brisbane by 7
Average Winning Margin: Brisbane by 7.5
SoS Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 6
Win Percentage: Brisbane by 13%
Average Opponent Rank: Brisbane by 5
Average Opponent Win %: Essendon by 16%
Average Opponent Points For: Essendon by 11
Highest Score For: Brisbane by 18
Highest Score Against: Essendon by 56
Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 46
Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 12
Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 6
Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 1
True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 8.6
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.2
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Brisbane: 6, Essendon: 11 – (Brisbane by 5)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Brisbane: 11.33, Essendon: 13.83 – (Brisbane by 2.5)

Over/Under Tempo: Moderate-low tempo expected; structured play with a focus on defensive shape and scoreboard control.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Brisbane’s statistical dominance suggests a one-sided contest unless Essendon can disrupt their rhythm early.