AFL Betting Tips Round 6
Nine games across four days – and the model has…
Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction
Game 1 of Round 12 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 29 sees Brisbane vs Essendon at the Gabba on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7.
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers Predictions
Thursday, May 29, 2026
7:30 pm AEDT @ the Gabba, Brisbane
Final Score Prediction
84 : 70
Win Percentages
Brisbane 58.24%
Essendon 41.76%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Brisbane Lions set at $1.07, and $7.00 for the Essendon Bombers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
The bookies are giving Brisbane a massive edge in this one, pricing them at $1.07, which implies an 86.74% chance of winning. Our model still has the Lions in front, but at a more measured 58.24%, which suggests the market might be overhyping their dominance.
On the other side, Essendon are out at $7.00, implying just a 13.26% chance. But our prediction gives them a much more competitive 41.76%, a big gap compared to the odds.
That kind of difference creates serious value on the Bombers. If our numbers are anywhere close, their true odds should be around $2.39. So that $7.00 price looks like serious overs.
Brisbane are definitely the stronger side here, but the market might be writing off Essendon way too quickly. If you’re looking for a long-odds punt with genuine upside, the Bombers might just be worth a crack.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Brisbane vs Essendon Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane by 13.7
- Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane by 9.7
- Power Rank: Brisbane by 7
- Average Winning Margin: Brisbane by 7.5
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 6
- Win Percentage: Brisbane by 13%
- Average Opponent Rank: Brisbane by 5
- Average Opponent Win %: Essendon by 16%
- Average Opponent Points For: Essendon by 11
- Highest Score For: Brisbane by 18
- Highest Score Against: Essendon by 56
- Highest Total Match Score: Essendon by 46
- Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 12
- Adjusted Points For: Brisbane by 6
- Adjusted Points Against: Essendon by 1
- True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 8.6
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 162.2
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Brisbane: 6, Essendon: 11 – (Brisbane by 5)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Brisbane: 11.33, Essendon: 13.83 – (Brisbane by 2.5)
Over/Under Tempo: Moderate-low tempo expected; structured play with a focus on defensive shape and scoreboard control.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring. Brisbane’s statistical dominance suggests a one-sided contest unless Essendon can disrupt their rhythm early.
What to do?
Best bet is to take the Essendon +41.5 this game.
As for multis, take the Essendon +41.5, UNDER 173.5, Brisbane 1-39 for $3.90 with Unibet as shown below.
Brisbane vs Essendon Betting Tips
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