Dolphins vs Broncos Prediction

So here’s the edge, while the bookies are treating this like a near-certainty for Brisbane, our model sees it as a much tighter contest. The Dolphins, according to our data, are far more of a threat than those odds suggest.

Based on our 38% win chance, the true odds for the Dolphins should be closer to $2.63, not the huge $4.60 on offer right now. That’s a massive gap, and a golden opportunity for value punters.

What to do?

The edge is with the Dolphins. If our read is accurate, there’s real long-term value backing them at $4.60, with the bookies potentially underestimating their chances in this one.

The Dolphins handicap of +13.5 is significant and while the Broncos love a huge score, the Dolphins actually won their last game against the Broncos by 34 points.

Additionally the game prior to that was won by Brisbane at home by 14 points which leaves an anticipated closer than 14 margin highly likely… A Dolphin win by 13+ is not out of the question this week and with odds floating around the 15:1 they are incredibly hard to pass up, they done it last time, at the same ground, as the home team, against the at the time almost unstoppable Broncos.

While the win percentage isn’t in their favour, it’s one hell of a lot better that what the bookmakers are implying.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins: 14.7, Broncos: 32.7 – (Broncos by 18 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Dolphins: 24.0, Broncos: 20.7 – (Broncos by 3.3 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Dolphins: N/A, Broncos: 23.0 – (Broncos only with recorded wins)
• Average Losing Margin: Dolphins: 9.3, Broncos: 10.0 – (Dolphins by 0.7 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Dolphins: 0.0%, Broncos: 66.7% – (Broncos by 66.7%)
• Highest Score For: Dolphins: 18, Broncos: 50 – (Broncos by 32 points)
• Highest Score Against: Dolphins: 30, Broncos: 32 – (Broncos better by 2 points)
• Biggest Win: Dolphins: N/A, Broncos: 36 – (Broncos dominant)
• Biggest Loss: Dolphins: 14, Broncos: 10 – (Broncos more resilient by 4 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 48, Broncos: 64 – (Broncos by 16 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 30, Broncos: 42 – (Dolphins by 12 points)
• Current Streak: Dolphins: L3, Broncos: W1 – (Broncos momentum)
• Current Form: Dolphins: LLL, Broncos: WLW – (Broncos edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 100%, Broncos: 0% – (Broncos by 100%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 0%, Broncos: 100% – (Broncos by 100%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Dolphins: 0%, Broncos: 0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Dolphins won by 34 points (40-6) on 31st August 2024