Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda Saints Predictions

Game 8 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Western Bulldogs vs Saint Kilda on April 20 at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 20, 2025

7:20 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Western Bulldogs

75 : 81

St Kilda

Win Percentages

Western Bulldogs 45.48%

St Kilda 54.52%

Bulldogs

St Kilda

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Western Bulldogs set at $1.57, and $2.35 for the St Kilda Saints, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Bulldogs 59.95%
St Kilda 40.05%

Opportunity Bet

The Bulldogs have home ground and market favouritism, but that’s not where the data’s pointing. Our model actually has the Saints ahead, and when you throw in the odds and power rankings, this one has value written all over it for St Kilda (and remember this is St Kilda’s home ground too).

The Betting Edge

The bookies have the Dogs as solid favourites, giving them a 60% chance of winning. But our model flips it, we’ve got St Kilda with the edge at 54.52%. That’s a massive discrepancy and gives the Saints real value at their current price.

Based on our prediction, the Saints’ fair odds should be around $1.84, but they’re currently paying $2.35, that’s a juicy value gap and a golden opportunity for anyone chasing underdog upside.

Power Rankings Snapshot:

Metric	Western Bulldogs	St Kilda
Overall Power Ranking	5	11
Balanced Power Score	14	3
Scoring Rank (Home/Away)	14	10
Points Conceded Rank	13	13
Win % Rank (Home/Away)	12	7

The bookies love the Bulldogs, but the model and power rankings are giving St Kilda the green light. With a win probability over 54% and odds of $2.35, there’s some serious value in backing the Saints.

What to do?

Taking St Kilda with the 10.5 line buffer is a super solid option, taking a cheeky win at 1-39 is one of the better bets this week at $2.95 with Ladbrokes, if you are looking to bet on the Doggies, I would suggest taking a look at their 1-39 also as it will be hard pressed for them to win this week by more than 40+.

Edge: St Kilda at $2.35 – excellent value and our model’s pick to win outright.

Suggested Betting Tip:

St Kilda +10.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

St Kilda @ $2.35 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.95 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 181.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs: 88.8, St Kilda: 95.2 – (St Kilda by 6.4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Western Bulldogs: 92.6, St Kilda: 92.2 – (St Kilda by 0.4 points)
Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs: 12.0, St Kilda: 35.3 – (St Kilda by 23.3 points)
Average Losing Margin: Western Bulldogs: 14.3, St Kilda: 45.5 – (Bulldogs by 31.2 points)
HT/FT Double %: Western Bulldogs: 20.0%, St Kilda: 60.0% – (St Kilda by 40%)
Highest Score For: Western Bulldogs: 113, St Kilda: 135 – (St Kilda by 22 points)
Highest Score Against: Western Bulldogs: 118, St Kilda: 135 – (Bulldogs by 17 points)
Biggest Win: Western Bulldogs: 16, St Kilda: 82 – (St Kilda by 66 points)
Biggest Loss: Western Bulldogs: 21, St Kilda: 63 – (Bulldogs more resilient by 42 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs: 215, St Kilda: 207 – (Bulldogs by 8 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Western Bulldogs: 146, St Kilda: 161 – (Bulldogs by 15 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Western Bulldogs: 60.2%, St Kilda: 59.3% – (Bulldogs by 0.9%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Western Bulldogs: 59.6%, St Kilda: 58.8% – (St Kilda by 0.8%)
Current Streak: Western Bulldogs: L2, St Kilda: L1 – (St Kilda edge)
Current Form: Western Bulldogs: WLWLL, St Kilda: LWWWL – (St Kilda edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: 66.7%, St Kilda: 0.0% – (St Kilda by 66.7%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Western Bulldogs: 33.3%, St Kilda: 100.0% – (St Kilda by 66.7%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Western Bulldogs: 50.0%, St Kilda: 0.0% – (Bulldogs by 50%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Western Bulldogs won by 60 points (124-64) on 18th April 2024