North Melbourne vs Brisbane Prediction

The Betting Edge

Bookies are showing no love for the Roos in this one, Brisbane are priced at $1.12 with a whopping 84.27% implied chance of getting the win, while North Melbourne sit way out at $6.25. But according to our model, it’s not quite that lopsided, Brisbane are still clear favourites, but with a 60.68% win probability, not 84%.

That’s a pretty major overcorrection by the market, and it makes the Kangaroos an interesting value option at $6.25. While an upset is unlikely, our numbers suggest it’s not as impossible as the odds make it seem.

💰 BET KANGAROOS @ $6.25 (vs Lions)

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Average Points For: Brisbane by 7.6
• Average Points Against: Brisbane by 26
• Power Rank: Brisbane by 8 spots
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne by 38.57 (note: likely influenced by fewer wins)
• Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 4
• Adjusted Points Against: Brisbane by 21
• True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 7
• Win Percentage: Brisbane by 75%
• Strength of Schedule: Brisbane by 5 spots on average ladder rank
• Total Power Rank Score: Brisbane 6.17 vs North Melbourne 9.33

Over/Under Tempo: 179.8 – expect a fast-paced, high-scoring match with open play.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. Brisbane could pull away early and control the tempo throughout.

What to do?

Brisbane are the stronger side by most measures, better backline, stronger recent form, and superior power metrics across the board. They’ve also done it against tougher opposition, so their numbers carry real weight.

That said, the odds on North are way too wide. At $6.25 and with a modelled win probability of 39.32%, there’s genuine value for punters willing to take a swing on the underdog. It’s a long shot, but the numbers suggest it’s not the 1-in-6 chance the market’s pricing.

If you’re chasing certainty, Brisbane are your anchor. But if you’re chasing big value and don’t mind the risk, North Melbourne are offering far more than the odds suggest.

Realistically there is no real value in taking Brisbane on the nose, they have real potential to win by 40+, however, considering Norths PF, they actually have a real chance of keeping it within the 1-39 bracket.

Best option here is to take the Brisbane 40+ for value.

If you’re looking at multi’s, the best option is the Brisbane -36.5, OVER 176.5, Brisbane 40+ winning margin for $3,20 with Unibet (however it is also worth noting you are probably better off taking these as single due to the small profit margin).

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Brisbane by 7.6
• Average Points Against Per Match: Brisbane by 26
• Power Rank: Brisbane by 8
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne by 38.57
• Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 4
• Win Percentage: Brisbane by 75%
• Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Brisbane by 5
• Average Opponent Win Percentage: North Melbourne by 41%
• Average Opponent Points For: North Melbourne by 5
• Highest Score For: North Melbourne by 7
• Highest Score Against: Brisbane by 48
• Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne by 9
• Lowest Total Match Score: Brisbane by 12
• Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 4
• Adjusted Points Against: Brisbane by 21
• True Power Score (Weighted): Brisbane by 7
• Over/Under Tempo: 179.8
• Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
• Average Opposition Ladder Rank: North Melbourne: 10, Brisbane: 5 – (Brisbane by 5)
• Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): North Melbourne: 9.33, Brisbane: 6.17 – (Brisbane by 3.16)