GWS vs Richmond Prediction

Game 4 of Round 12 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 31 sees GWS vs Richmond at ENGIE Stadium on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

GWS vs Richmond Predictions

Saturday, May 31, 2025

4:15 pm AEDT @ ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

GWS

74 : 63

Richmond

Win Percentages

GWS 63.84%

Richmond 36.16%

GWS

Richmond

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the GWS GIANTS set at $1.05, and $8.50 for the Richmond Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

GIANTS 89.01%
Tigers 10.99%

The Betting Edge

The bookies are seriously backing GWS here, with odds of $1.05 implying a massive 89.01% chance of winning. Our prediction still has the Giants ahead, but only at 63.84%, which suggests the market’s gone a bit overboard.

Richmond, meanwhile, are way out at $9.00, that’s an implied probability of just 10.99%. But according to our model, they’ve actually got a 36.16% shot at causing an upset.

That’s a huge difference, and it points to massive value on the Tigers. If our numbers are on point, their true odds should be more like $2.77. So that $9.00 price is massive overs.

Now, GWS are rightfully favourites, but not by as much as the market thinks. If you’re chasing serious value and don’t mind a long shot, Richmond might be the roughie worth a flutter.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

GWS vs Richmond Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: GWS by 19.2
Average Points Against Per Match: GWS by 18.5
Power Rank: GWS by 9
Average Winning Margin: GWS by 24.00
SoS Adjusted Points For: GWS by 10
Win Percentage: GWS by 27%
Average Opponent Rank: GWS by 4
Average Opponent Win %: Richmond by 16%
Average Opponent Points For: Richmond by 12
Highest Score For: GWS by 42
Highest Score Against: GWS by 27
Highest Total Match Score: Richmond by 2
Lowest Total Match Score: GWS by 53
Adjusted Points For: GWS by 10
Adjusted Points Against: GWS by 7
True Power Score (Weighted): GWS by 10
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 160.9
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: GWS: 7, Richmond: 11 – (GWS by 4)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): GWS: 7.00, Richmond: 17.00 – (GWS by 10)

Over/Under Tempo: Low tempo expected; GWS likely to dictate terms through defensive control and stoppage strength.

Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. GWS holds a significant edge in almost every key metric and will be difficult to stop if Richmond can’t lift their pressure and efficiency.

What to do?

Best bet is to take the UNDER 173.5 this game, though it is highly likely that GWS will absolutely dominate this game, Richmond don’t have the worst defence in the game (North Melbourne and West Coast are off), however Richmonds main concern is that they do have the worst attack, they will lose this week, the big question is by how much.

As for multis, take the Richmond +44.5, UNDER 173.5, GWS 1-39 for $4.10 with Unibet as shown below.