Geelong vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Game 1 of Round 11 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 22 sees Geelong vs Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Geelong Cats vs Western Bulldogs Predictions

Thursday, May 22, 2025

7:30 pm AEDT @ GMHBA Stadium, Geelong

Final Score Prediction

Geelong

88 : 94

Western Bulldogs

Win Percentages

Geelong 45.11%

Bulldogs 54.89%

Geelong

Western Bulldogs

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Geelong Cats set at $1.78, and $2.00 for the Western Bulldogs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Geelong 52.91%
Bulldogs 47.09%

The Betting Edge

According to the bookies, Geelong are the slight favourites with an implied probability of 52.91%, while the Western Bulldogs sit at 47.09%. But based on our own analysis, Geelong only have a 45.11% chance of winning, while the Dogs actually have the edge with a 54.89% chance of getting up.

That shift in the numbers means there’s some tasty value to be had on the Western Bulldogs. If our read on this is right, the true odds for the Bulldogs should be around $1.82, but the bookies are giving us $2.00!

So what’s the play? Well, that edge is all about the Bulldogs being underrated by the market. Backing the Dogs at $2.00 gives us a decent value punt, since we reckon their actual chances of winning are better than what the bookies are offering.

The Bulldogs are more likely to win than the odds suggest, and that opens the door for a value bet on the Dogs at $2.00.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

Geelong vs Western Bulldogs Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Western Bulldogs by 6.7
Average Points Against Per Match: Even
Power Rank: Western Bulldogs by 4
Average Winning Margin: Western Bulldogs by 14.33
SoS Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 9
Win Percentage: Even
Average Opponent Rank: Even
Average Opponent Win %: Western Bulldogs by 1%
Average Opponent Points For: Geelong by 2
Highest Score For: Geelong by 16
Highest Score Against: Geelong by 13
Highest Total Match Score: Geelong by 4
Lowest Total Match Score: Geelong by 15
Adjusted Points For: Western Bulldogs by 9
Adjusted Points Against: Geelong by 5
True Power Score (Weighted): Western Bulldogs by 3
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 181.9
Game Style Prediction: Struggler Duel
Average Opposition Ladder Rank: Geelong: 7, Western Bulldogs: 7 – (Even)
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Geelong: 5.33, Western Bulldogs: 7.83 – (Geelong by 2.5)