Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction

Cats Look to End Hawks’ Fairytale Run in MCG Blockbuster

Home • $1.57

Away • $2.45

Saturday • MCG • Fine weather at the MCG

The Hawthorn revival story has captured the footy world’s imagination, but can they topple the mighty Cats at the MCG?

After Jeremy Cameron’s 7-goal demolition job when these sides last met in Round 17 (Geelong won 110-59), the Hawks have transformed from easy-beats to genuine finals threats.

Geelong demolished Brisbane by 38 points in their qualifying final, while Hawthorn stunned Adelaide on the road last Friday night.

The bookies have installed Geelong as clear favourites, but I’ve been crunching the numbers and there’s more to this story than the odds suggest.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Geelong 55.9% chance to win

Market odds: $1.57 (63.7% implied)

Probability edge: Hawks +3.3% (model 44.1% vs 40.8% implied)

EV at listed prices: Cats −12.2%; Hawks +8.0%

Our model: Total points 177 (accounting for finals intensity)

Market total: 165.5 points

Points vs line: +11.5 (model − market)

Our model: Geelong by 21 points

Market line: Geelong -8.5

Edge (line): Value on Cats -8.5 (model margin ≫ line)

BEST BET: Over 165.5 Total Points @ $1.90 (Model total +11.5 vs line)

VALUE BET: Hawthorn Head-to-Head @ $2.45 (EV +8.0%)

BEST BET

Over 165.5 Total Points

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Hawthorn Head-to-Head

$2.45

BET NOW

SMART EDGE

Geelong -8.5

$1.90

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Our Data Says: Geelong 99, Hawthorn 78

That gives Geelong a 55.9% win chance, Hawthorn 44.1%

Bookmakers have Geelong at $1.57 (63.7% implied) vs Hawthorn at $2.45 (40.8% implied)

The Market Edge: Here’s where it gets interesting. Cats are overvalued on H2H (−12.2% EV at $1.57). Hawks show value at $2.45 (EV +8.0%). For totals, our projection sits +11.5 points above the line; price EV depends on our modelled over probability clearing the 52.63% break-even. That total looks way too low at 165.5.

Our Prediction

GEE 99 | HAW 78

Win Probability

GEE 55.9% | HAW 44.1%

Market Edge

3.3%

on Hawthorn

FORM LINE

Look, I’ve been tracking both sides closely and the form couldn’t be more contrasting.

Geelong have won all five of their last games, averaging 117.6 points while conceding just 67.2. That’s elite two-way footy.

The Hawks? They’ve won 4 of their last 5, with that lone loss a narrow 10-pointer to Brisbane.

What caught my eye is their scoring – averaging 97.8 in this stretch, well up on their season average of 83.2 points per game.

Geelong Cats

WWWWW

Won all five of their last games, averaging 117.6 points while conceding 67.2.

Hawthorn Hawks

WWLWW

Won 4 of their last 5, averaging 97.8 points in this stretch.

KEY STATS

After crunching these numbers, the scoring differential jumps out immediately. Geelong average 15.5 goals per game at home versus Hawthorn’s 13.2 on the road – that’s a 14-point advantage right there.

But here’s the kicker: both teams average exactly 37.4 clearances per game.

When the clearance battle is deadlocked, it usually comes down to efficiency, and that’s where Geelong’s experience should shine through.

The Cats also dominate the inside-50 count (56.1 to 53.4), giving them more scoring opportunities.

GOALS PER GAME

Geelong
15.5

Hawthorn
13.2

CLEARANCES PER GAME

Geelong
37.4

Hawthorn
37.4

INSIDE-50 COUNT

Geelong
56.1

Hawthorn
53.4