Geelong vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Game 9 of Round 6 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Geelong vs Hawthorn on April 21 at the MCG on Monday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, & Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Monday, April 21, 2025

3:20 pm AEDT @ MCG, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Geelong

102 : 85

Hawthorn

Win Percentages

Geelong 55.88%

Hawthorn 44.12%

Geelong

Hawthorn

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Geelong Cats set at $1.87, and $1.94 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Cats 50.92%
Hawks 49.08%

Opportunity Bet

The market has this one split nearly 50/50, but our model says Geelong hold a slight edge. Add in some standout home stats and power rankings, and there’s a bit of subtle value leaning toward the Cats.

The Betting Edge

With the market pricing this as basically a coin toss, it’s Geelong who come out with the edge in our model, sitting at 55.88% to win. That means their fair odds should be more like $1.79, giving us some low-key value at $1.87.

It’s not a huge gap, but in a matchup this close, that slight edge can be all the difference, especially when you stack it with their stronger power rankings and home metrics.

Power Rankings Snapshot:

Metric	Geelong	Hawthorn
Overall Power Ranking	3	7
Balanced Power Score	9	11
Points For Rank (Home/Away)	3	7
Points Conceded Rank	3	6
Win % Rank (Home/Away)	1	3
Total Power Rank Score	3.67	8.00

Summary

This is a tight one on paper, but the edge lies with Geelong. They’re stronger across power metrics, have the best home win % in the comp, and our model gives them a near 56% shot at taking the win. At $1.87, there’s a little bit of value in backing the Cats in what should be a hard-fought game.

What to do?

Geelong on the nose is pretty decent but they will be hard pressed to beat Hawthorn by more than 40 points, best value bet this week is the Geelong 1-39 winning margin with Ladbrokes at $2.40, second best bet is the OVER 174.5, however with two teams of this calibre squaring off there is a good chance they will also keep the score lower than the anticipated 187 our prediction suggests.

The line at 1.5 suggests a close game however the prediction model anticipates Geelong to win by 18 points so this one is also a solid option.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Geelong 1-39 @ $2.40 with
Unibet

H-2-H Bet:

Geelong @ $1.87 with
Unibet

Line Bet:

Geelong +1.5 @ $1.90 with
Unibet

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 174.5 @ $1.88 with
Unibet

Geelong vs Hawthorn SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Geelong: 100.6, Hawthorn: 90.8 – (Geelong by 9.8 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong: 76.6, Hawthorn: 81.2 – (Geelong by 4.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Geelong: 45.3, Hawthorn: 19.5 – (Geelong by 25.8 points)
Average Losing Margin: Geelong: 8.0, Hawthorn: 30.0 – (Geelong by 22 points)
HT/FT Double %: Geelong: 40.0%, Hawthorn: 60.0% – (Hawthorn by 20%)
Highest Score For: Geelong: 147, Hawthorn: 111 – (Geelong by 36 points)
Highest Score Against: Geelong: 100, Hawthorn: 121 – (Geelong by 21 points)
Biggest Win: Geelong: 78, Hawthorn: 26 – (Geelong by 52 points)
Biggest Loss: Geelong: 9, Hawthorn: 30 – (Geelong more resilient by 21 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Geelong: 219, Hawthorn: 212 – (Geelong by 7 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Geelong: 131, Hawthorn: 140 – (Hawthorn by 9 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Geelong: 65.2%, Hawthorn: 63.2% – (Geelong by 2.0%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Geelong: 59.6%, Hawthorn: 56.3% – (Hawthorn by 3.3%)
Current Streak: Geelong: W2, Hawthorn: L1 – (Geelong momentum)
Current Form: Geelong: WLLWW, Hawthorn: WWWWL – (Geelong edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Geelong: 33.3%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 33.3%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Geelong: 66.7%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 33.3%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Geelong: 50.0%, Hawthorn: 50.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Geelong won by 51 points (110-59) on 6th July 2024