Adelaide vs GWS Prediction

This one’s a true coin toss on paper, and the market is pretty bang on, but not perfectly. Our model gives a slight lean to the Crows, and when we stack that up against the odds, there’s a touch of value on offer.

The market is just about spot on for Adelaide, they’ve got them at 52.36%, and our model has them at 53.07%. Not much of a gap, but it still suggests Adelaide are ‘very slightly’ undervalued at $1.82. Our numbers say their fair odds should be more like $1.88.

GWS, on the other hand, are a touch overvalued at $2.00, with our model only giving them a 46.93% chance to win. So while it’s not a huge edge, there’s still a small lean towards backing the Crows in this one.

This one’s tight across the board, but the data gives Adelaide a minor edge over the bookies’ line. If you’re looking for a play, the Crows at $1.82 come with a smidge of value, not massive, but in a 50/50-ish game, it could be the difference.

Sometimes, it’s the small edges that stack up over time, and this is one of those cases where Adelaide might just be the smarter side to back.

This matchup comes down to one key factor: home vs away performance.

Adelaide at home has been dominant. They currently:

• Rank 1st in Power Ranking (home)

• Rank 1st in Home Score Average

• Rank 1st in Balanced Power Score

• Sit 2nd for Average Points Scored at Home

They’re in red-hot form when playing in front of their home crowd.

GWS, on the other hand, have been excellent overall this season and sit 3rd on the ladder, but their away form tells a different story:

• 13th in Power Ranking (away)

• 12th in Away Score Rank

• 16th in Balanced Power Score

To their credit, they outperform Adelaide in a couple of important metrics:

• Better points conceded per match

• Stronger Home vs Away Win %

However, the scoring gap is hard to ignore:

• GWS average 83.7 points away from home

• Adelaide averages a whopping 116.3 points at home

GWS will need something special to overcome the Crows at home this week. With Adelaide’s firepower and form at home, it’s going to be a tough ask for the GIANTS.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide: 120.0, GWS: 97.4 – (Adelaide by 22.6 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide: 92.0, GWS: 67.0 – (GWS by 25 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide: 53.3, GWS: 41.0 – (Adelaide by 12.3 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Adelaide: 10.0, GWS: 12.0 – (Adelaide by 2 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Adelaide: 60.0%, GWS: 80.0% – (GWS by 20%)
• Highest Score For: Adelaide: 161, GWS: 132 – (Adelaide by 29 points)
• Highest Score Against: Adelaide: 119, GWS: 82 – (GWS by 37 points)
• Biggest Win: Adelaide: 63, GWS: 81 – (GWS by 18 points)
• Biggest Loss: Adelaide: 19, GWS: 12 – (GWS more resilient by 7 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 261, GWS: 192 – (Adelaide by 69 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 181, GWS: 140 – (Adelaide by 41 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Adelaide: 68.7%, GWS: 61.2% – (Adelaide by 7.5%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Adelaide: 60.7%, GWS: 48.9% – (GWS by 11.8%)
• Current Streak: Adelaide: L2, GWS: W2 – (GWS momentum)
• Current Form: Adelaide: WWWLL, GWS: WWLWW – (GWS edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 40.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (GWS by 40%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 60.0%, GWS: 100.0% – (GWS by 40%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Adelaide: 0.0%, GWS: 0.0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Adelaide won by 16 points (94-78) on 29th June 2024