Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction

The Betting Edge

At $1.47, the Crows are being heavily backed by the bookies with a 64.32% implied win chance, but our numbers are a bit more measured, giving Adelaide a 57.44% edge. That means the Blues are a touch undervalued at $2.65, based on their true form and potential to cause an upset.

It’s not a huge edge, but if you’re keen to back an underdog with some bite, Carlton might be worth a cheeky look. Still, Adelaide remain the more likely winners based on overall form.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Predicted Final Score: Adelaide 97 – 84 Carlton
• Average Points For: Adelaide 102.71, Carlton 88.29 (Crows by 14.42 points)
• Average Points Against: Adelaide 82.71, Carlton 72.14 (Blues stronger defensively by 10.57 points)
• Win Percentage: Adelaide 57.14%, Carlton 42.86% (Crows by 14.28%)
• Adjusted Points For: Adelaide 101.84, Carlton 81.74 (Crows by 20.1 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Adelaide 91.64, Carlton 72.50 (Blues by 19.14 points)
• Over/Under Tempo: 173.9 (Expect a fast, attacking game with plenty of scoring)
• Game Style Prediction: High Tempo Game

What to do?

Adelaide come into this one ranked 3rd on the power charts, while Carlton sit a few spots back at 6th. It’s a decent gap, but not unbridgeable.

The Crows are leading the way in scoring firepower, and not by a little. They’ve got a huge edge in Adjusted Points For (+20.1) and have faced significantly tougher opposition (average opponent rank 4.38 vs Carlton’s 9.38).

Carlton, however, have been more efficient in the backline, conceding fewer points both raw and adjusted. If they can slow the tempo and make this a grind, they’re a real chance to cause a surprise.

But if this turns into a shootout, which it likely will given the tempo forecast, the Crows’ superior attacking numbers give them the edge to pull away late.

All up, Adelaide are deserved favourites, but if you’re chasing value or a live underdog, the Blues at $2.65 offer a bit of risk-reward appeal in what could turn into a shootout!

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide: 102.71, Carlton: 88.29 – (Adelaide by 14.42 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide: 82.71, Carlton: 72.14 – (Carlton by 10.57 points)
• Power Rank: Adelaide: 3, Carlton: 6 – (Adelaide by 3)
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide: 44.50, Carlton: 57.00 – (Carlton by 12.5 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: Adelaide: 101.84, Carlton: 81.74 – (Adelaide by 20.1 points)
• Win Percentage: Adelaide: 57.14%, Carlton: 42.86% – (Adelaide by 14.28%)
• Average Opponent Rank: Adelaide: 4.38, Carlton: 9.38 – (Adelaide by 5 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: Adelaide: 50.00%, Carlton: 44.64% – (Adelaide by 5.36%)
• Average Opponent Points For: Adelaide: 95.50, Carlton: 87.86 – (Carlton by 7.64 points)
• Highest Score For: Adelaide: 161.00, Carlton: 153.00 – (Adelaide by 8 points)
• Highest Score Against: Adelaide: 119.00, Carlton: 83.00 – (Carlton by 36 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 261.00, Carlton: 224.00 – (Adelaide by 37 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 86.00, Carlton: 109.00 – (Adelaide by 23 points)
• Adjusted Points For: Adelaide: 101.84, Carlton: 81.74 – (Adelaide by 20.1 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Adelaide: 91.64, Carlton: 72.50 – (Carlton by 19.14 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): Adelaide: 4.00, Carlton: 7.20 – (Adelaide by 3.2 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 173.9
• Game Style Prediction: High Tempo Game