Panthers vs Cowboys Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Penrith Panthers vs North Queensland Cowboys Predictions

Game 2 of Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 4 features the Panthers vs Cowboys at CommBank Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 4, 2025

5:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Panthers

29 : 20

Cowboys

Win Percentages

Panthers 61%

Cowboys 39%

Panthers

Cowboys

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Penrith Panthers is set at $1.22, and $4.25 for the North Queensland Cowboys, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Panthers 77.71%
Cowboys 22.29%

Opportunity Bet

The Betting Edge

There’s no doubt Penrith are a powerhouse, and the bookies are backing them hard at 77.71%. But according to our model, things might not be quite so one-sided, we’ve got the Panthers at 61% and the Cowboys with a decent 39% shot.

Now here’s the kicker, the Cowboys are paying a whopping $4.25. But with our analysis suggesting their chances are much higher than the implied 22.29%, that opens up a solid value bet. Based on our numbers, their true odds should be more like $2.56.

In summary: The Cowboys are definitely underdogs, but the odds on offer ($4.25) are way out of step with their real chances. If our read is right, backing North Queensland shows the potential to be a smart move with a strong edge.

What to do?

Let’s be honest, the Panthers aren’t having the best start to the year, but by no means does that mean their season is finished. While Cowboys have just managed to win their first game of the season last week, the Panthers have just lost three in a row, and considering their success in the past few years we can be sure as hell that they are not going to let another game slip through their fingers. Penrith will be bringing everything to the table this week including the kitchen sink, it would be nice to see them back on their A game but we see this game being won by 1-12.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Panthers 1-12 @ $3.20 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Panthers @ $1.22 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Cowboys +13.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 50.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Panthers vs Cowboys SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Panthers: 25.5, Cowboys: 17.5 – (Panthers by 8.0 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Panthers: 29.5, Cowboys: 31.0 – (Panthers by 1.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Panthers: 6.0, Cowboys: 10.0 – (Cowboys by 4.0 points)
Average Losing Margin: Panthers: 7.3, Cowboys: 21.3 – (Panthers by 14.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Panthers: 25.0%, Cowboys: 25.0% – (Even)
Highest Score For: Panthers: 32, Cowboys: 30 – (Panthers by 2 points)
Highest Score Against: Panthers: 38, Cowboys: 42 – (Panthers more resilient by 4 points)
Biggest Win: Panthers: 6, Cowboys: 10 – (Cowboys by 4 points)
Biggest Loss: Panthers: 10, Cowboys: 30 – (Panthers more resilient by 20 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Panthers: 70, Cowboys: 54 – (Panthers by 16 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Panthers: 46, Cowboys: 42 – (Panthers by 4 points)
Current Streak: Panthers: L3, Cowboys: W1 – (Cowboys momentum)
Current Form: Panthers: WLLL, Cowboys: LLLW – (Cowboys edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Panthers: 0.0%, Cowboys: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Panthers: 100.0%, Cowboys: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Panthers: 0.0%, Cowboys: 0.0% – (Even)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 30 Jun 2024 (R17): Cowboys 16 def. Panthers 6
- 27 Apr 2024 (R8): Panthers 26 def. Cowboys 20
- 2 Sep 2023 (R27): Panthers 44 def. Cowboys 12
- 16 Jun 2023 (R16): Cowboys 27 def. Panthers 23
- 3 Sep 2022 (R25): Cowboys 38 def. Panthers 8