Broncos vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers Predictions

Game 6 of Round 5 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 5 features the Broncos vs Wests Tigers at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 5, 2025

6:35 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Broncos

29 : 22

Wests Tigers

Win Percentages

Broncos 56%

Wests Tigers 44%

Broncos

Wests Tigers

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Brisbane Broncos is set at $1.14, and $5.50 for the Wests Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Broncos 82.83%
Tigers 17.17%

Opportunity Bet

This is where things get interesting, the bookies are treating the Broncos like near-certainties, with an implied probability of 82.83%. But our model sees this as a much closer contest, giving Brisbane just a 56% chance of winning.

That means the Wests Tigers, despite being way out at $5.50, are actually showing strong value here. According to our analysis, their true odds should be closer to $2.27, making the current price a massive overs.

In summary: The market’s heavily overrating the Broncos here. If our numbers hold up, the Tigers are offering serious value at $5.50. It’s a classic high-risk, high-reward play, but there’s a clear edge in backing the underdog this time.

What to do?

With such an odd and unexpected start to the year for the Wests Tigers, we can’t guarantee a win or loss in either teams direction this week, however, the margins between these two teams so far indicate this will be a closer than anticipated game by the bookies, with a line of 17.5 the best bet this week is the Wests Tigers +17.5, and though it might not be the biggest value bet it is by far the smartest and safest way to go.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Wests Tigers +17.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Broncos @ $1.14 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Broncos 1-12 @ $3.60 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 52.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Broncos vs Wests Tigers SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Broncos: 29.5, Wests Tigers: 23.5 – (Broncos by 6.0 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Broncos: 18.5, Wests Tigers: 15.0 – (Wests Tigers by 3.5 points)
Average Winning Margin: Broncos: 18.0, Wests Tigers: 19.0 – (Wests Tigers by 1.0 point)
Average Losing Margin: Broncos: 10.0, Wests Tigers: 2.0 – (Wests Tigers by 8.0 points)
HT/FT Double %: Broncos: 75.0%, Wests Tigers: 25.0% – (Broncos by 50%)
Highest Score For: Broncos: 50, Wests Tigers: 32 – (Broncos by 18 points)
Highest Score Against: Broncos: 32, Wests Tigers: 26 – (Wests Tigers more resilient by 6 points)
Biggest Win: Broncos: 36, Wests Tigers: 26 – (Broncos by 10 points)
Biggest Loss: Broncos: 10, Wests Tigers: 2 – (Wests Tigers more resilient by 8 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Broncos: 64, Wests Tigers: 50 – (Broncos by 14 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Broncos: 32, Wests Tigers: 18 – (Broncos by 14 points)
Current Streak: Broncos: W2, Wests Tigers: L1 – (Broncos momentum)
Current Form: Broncos: WLWW, Wests Tigers: LWWL – (Broncos edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Wests Tigers: 50.0% – (Broncos by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Broncos: 100.0%, Wests Tigers: 50.0% – (Broncos by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Wests Tigers: 100.0% – (Wests Tigers by 100%)
Last 5 Encounters:
- 27 Apr 2024 (R8): Broncos 34 def. Wests Tigers 10
- 1 Apr 2023 (R5): Broncos 46 def. Wests Tigers 12
- 30 Jul 2022 (R20): Wests Tigers 32 def. Broncos 18
- 18 Jul 2021 (R18): Wests Tigers 42 def. Broncos 24
- 17 Jul 2020 (R10): Wests Tigers 48 def. Broncos 0