Knights vs Panthers Prediction – Round 8 2026
NRL Round 8 • 2026 Model Predicted – Final Score…
Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction – Round 8 2026
NRL Round 8 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
WAR
$1.52
Saturday, April 25 • 6:05pm
23 : 22
Hnry Stadium
DOL
$2.54
New Zealand Warriors by 1 points
Model Predicted Margin
New Zealand Warriors by 1
Current Market
New Zealand Warriors -5.5
4.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Warriors H2H @ $1.52
Model has the Warriors winning at home; the short price is the play with confidence sitting at sixty percent.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Dolphins +5.5 @ $1.96
Odds correct at time of posting
The Warriors Are Favourites. The Model Says It’s a Coin Flip.
Two sides separated by ten places on the ladder should not be averaging the same points per game over the past month. Warriors sit second, Dolphins sit twelfth, and yet both teams have scored 28.4 a game in their last five.
The defensive number tilts it to the Dolphins at 18.2 conceded per game versus 21.6 for the Warriors. But the Warriors are at home in Wellington, and a 60 percent confidence call with a one-point model margin still lands on the home favourite.
The risk is the market number. Book has the Warriors at minus 5.5, which is a big ask when the model has them by one. In a tight arm-wrestle the head-to-head wins and the line does not. That is the whole basis of the tip.
Dolphins only went down by one to Penrith a fortnight ago, so there is a real case for the plus 5.5 as a value sidecar. For the main tip though, play the short price on the side the model calls.
Warriors vs Dolphins Tip
Take the Warriors head-to-head at $1.52. Model has them by one, market has them by 5.5, so back the win without covering the line.
Warriors vs Dolphins Key Stats
POINTS PER GAME (LAST 5)
WAR28
DOL28
Identical scoring output over the past month despite a ten-place ladder gap.
POINTS CONCEDED (LAST 5)
WAR22
DOL18
Dolphins’ defence has quietly been tighter than the Warriors over the same stretch.
WINS IN LAST 5
WAR3
DOL1
Warriors hold the form-line edge, but Dolphins are closer than the record suggests.
Warriors vs Dolphins Form Guide
New Zealand Warriors
LWW
- R5: L 22-36 vs Sharks
- R6: W 38-14 vs Storm
- R7: W 28-20 vs Titans
The Dolphins
LL
- R5: L 18-52 vs Sea Eagles
- R7: L 22-23 vs Panthers
Final Verdict
Warriors at home, Dolphins close enough to cover. The head-to-head is the tip, the line is the sidecar.
LOCK IT IN: Warriors H2H @ $1.52
Key Facts
| Match | New Zealand Warriors vs The Dolphins |
| Date | Saturday, April 25 |
| Venue | Hnry Stadium |
| Our Tip | Warriors H2H @ $1.52 |
| Predicted Score | New Zealand Warriors 23 – The Dolphins 22 |
New Zealand Warriors vs The Dolphins FAQs
Who will win Warriors vs Dolphins?
Our model tips the Warriors by one point with 60 percent confidence. It is the tightest call of the round, but the Warriors are at home and the model backs them to get the two points.
What is the best bet for Warriors vs Dolphins in Round 8?
Warriors head-to-head at $1.52 is our recommended tip. Dolphins plus 5.5 at $1.96 is the value sidecar for anyone wanting a second play, given the model margin of one sits well inside the 5.5-point line.
Where is the Warriors vs Dolphins Round 8 match being played?
The match is at Hnry Stadium in Wellington, kicking off at 6:05pm on Saturday 25 April 2026.
