Eels vs Dragons Tips

Eels vs Dragons Prediction

Ben H
2 April 2025
376 Views

Parramatta Eels vs St. George Illawarra Dragons Predictions

Game 4 of Round 5 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 5 features the Eels vs Dragons at CommBank Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 

Eels vs Dragons

Saturday, April 5, 2026

2:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Parramatta Eels Eels

14 : 24

Dragons St. George Illawarra Dragons

Win Percentages

Eels 38%
Dragons 62%

 

Dragons

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Parramatta Eels is set at $2.40, and $1.58 for the St. George Illawarra Dragons, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Eels

39.70%
Dragons

60.30%

 

Opportunity Bet

In this case, the bookies and our model are pretty closely aligned. The Dragons are rightfully favoured, with our numbers giving them a 62% chance compared to the bookies’ 60.30%. The Eels are sitting at 38%, not far off the implied 39.70% from the market.

That means there’s not much edge to work with here. The current odds of $1.58 for the Dragons and $2.40 for the Eels are more or less in line with our expectations. It’s a fairly priced market, so there’s no clear betting opportunity jumping out.

What to do?

The Eels haven’t been having a great start to the season, and while the Dragons aren’t exactly sitting at the top of the ladder themselves, the Dragons are well in front when it comes to stopping the other team from scoring. The Dragons should take this one pretty easily, the head to head doesn’t hold much value, we think the Dragons at $3.40 is a solid option.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Dragons 1-12 @ $3.40 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Dragons @ $1.58 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Dragons -4.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 49.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

 Eels vs Dragons SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

  • Average Points For Per Match: Eels: 11.0, Dragons: 19.3 – (Dragons by 8.3 points)
  • Average Points Against Per Match: Eels: 32.5, Dragons: 20.3 – (Dragons by 12.2 points)
  • Average Winning Margin: Eels: N/A, Dragons: 6.0 – (Dragons by 6.0 points)
  • Average Losing Margin: Eels: 21.5, Dragons: 4.5 – (Dragons by 17.0 points)
  • HT/FT Double %: Eels: 0.0%, Dragons: 0.0% – (Even)
  • Highest Score For: Eels: 18, Dragons: 24 – (Dragons by 6 points)
  • Highest Score Against: Eels: 56, Dragons: 28 – (Dragons more resilient by 28 points)
  • Biggest Win: Eels: N/A, Dragons: 6 – (Dragons by 6 points)
  • Biggest Loss: Eels: 38, Dragons: 8 – (Dragons more resilient by 30 points)
  • Highest Total Match Score: Eels: 74, Dragons: 49 – (Eels by 25 points)
  • Lowest Total Match Score: Eels: 24, Dragons: 22 – (Eels by 2 points)
  • Current Streak: Eels: L4, Dragons: W1 – (Dragons momentum)
  • Current Form: Eels: LLLL, Dragons: LLW – (Dragons edge)
  • Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Eels: N/A, Dragons: 100.0% – (Eels by 100%)
  • Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Eels: N/A, Dragons: 0.0% – (Eels by 100%)
  • Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Eels: 0.0%, Dragons: 50.0% – (Dragons by 50%)
  • Last 5 Encounters:
    • 31 Aug 2024 (R26): Eels 44 def. Dragons 40
    • 6 Aug 2023 (R23): Eels 26 def. Dragons 20
    • 3 Apr 2022 (R4): Eels 48 def. Dragons 14
    • 11 Apr 2021 (R5): Dragons 26 def. Eels 12
    • 14 Aug 2020 (R14): Dragons 14 def. Eels 12

Check out all this weeks NRL Multi tips on our Multi Bets Page.

 

Multi Bet Tips

 

2026 NRL Telstra Premiership – Round 5 Schedule

Raiders vs Sharks

  • Thursday, April 3, 2026
  • 7:00 pm @ GIO Stadium, Canberra

Panthers vs Cowboys

  • Friday, April 4, 2026
  • 5:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Rabbitohs vs Roosters

Eels vs Dragons

  • Saturday, April 5, 2026
  • 2:00 pm @ CommBank Stadium, Sydney

Titans vs Dolphins

Broncos vs Wests Tigers

Sea Eagles vs Storm

Bulldogs vs Knights

  • Sunday, April 6, 2026
  • 6:15 pm @ Accor Stadium, Sydney

Byes: Warriors

NRL Draw

Check the NRL Draw for upcoming NRL matches this season.

NRL Injury List

Keep up-to-date with your team’s injuries this week with our NRL injury list.

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Author Ben H

Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness. A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact

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