Broncos vs Roosters Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters Predictions

Game 3 of Round 6 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 11 features the Broncos vs Roosters at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 11, 2025

8:00 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Broncos

35 : 15

Roosters

Win Percentages

Broncos 58%

Roosters 42%

Broncos

Roosters

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Brisbane Broncos is set at $1.30, and $3.50 for the Sydney Roosters, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Broncos 72.96%
Roosters 27.04%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies have the Broncos at $1.30, which suggests they win this almost 73% of the time, but our model has them at a lower 58%. That’s still a strong favourite, but nowhere near what the market’s implying, meaning there’s not much value backing Brisbane at that price.

Now here’s where it gets spicy, the Roosters are paying $3.50, and while the market reckons they’ve only got a 27.04% chance, our numbers bump that up to 42%. That’s a pretty juicy gap and a sign there’s real value backing the Chooks here if you’re looking to go against the grain.

In Summary

Even though we’re tipping the Broncos to get the win, the value lies with the Roosters. Our analysis gives them a much better shot than the odds suggest, making that $3.50 a tempting roughie. If you’re on the hunt for a high-upside play, the Roosters are well worth a look.

What to do?

These two played each other just over a month ago resulting in a 36 point win in favour of the Broncos, we can’t see this week’s game going much different, and while the Broncos are well deserved favourites, their odds are nothing to grin about, The Broncos line at -14.5 for $2.00 is possibly the best way forwards, Typically the Broncos winning by 13+ would be a better bet but that is only paying a mere $1.75 (pittance for a 13+ winning margin).

Suggested Betting Tip:

Broncos -14.5 @ $2.00 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Broncos (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.20 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Broncos 13+ @ $1.75 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 50.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Broncos vs Roosters SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Broncos: 32.8, Roosters: 16.8 – (Broncos by 16 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Broncos: 19.6, Roosters: 29.2 – (Broncos by 9.6 points)
Average Winning Margin: Broncos: 19.0, Roosters: 6.0 – (Broncos by 13 points)
Average Losing Margin: Broncos: 10.0, Roosters: 17.0 – (Broncos more resilient by 7 points)
HT/FT Double %: Broncos: 80.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Broncos by 80%)
Highest Score For: Broncos: 50, Roosters: 38 – (Broncos by 12 points)
Highest Score Against: Broncos: 32, Roosters: 50 – (Broncos by 18 points)
Biggest Win: Broncos: 36, Roosters: 6 – (Broncos by 30 points)
Biggest Loss: Broncos: 10, Roosters: 36 – (Broncos more resilient by 26 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Broncos: 70, Roosters: 70 – (Even)
Lowest Total Match Score: Broncos: 32, Roosters: 20 – (Broncos by 12 points)
Current Streak: Broncos: W3, Roosters: L3 – (Broncos momentum)
Current Form: Broncos: WLWWW, Roosters: LWLLL – (Broncos edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Roosters: 100.0% – (Broncos by 100%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Broncos: 100.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Broncos by 100%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Even)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Broncos won by 36 points (50-14) on 6th March 2025
Previous Encounter: Broncos won by 22 points (40-18) on 3rd May 2024