Broncos vs Roosters Prediction

The bookies have the Broncos at $1.30, which suggests they win this almost 73% of the time, but our model has them at a lower 58%. That’s still a strong favourite, but nowhere near what the market’s implying, meaning there’s not much value backing Brisbane at that price.

Now here’s where it gets spicy, the Roosters are paying $3.50, and while the market reckons they’ve only got a 27.04% chance, our numbers bump that up to 42%. That’s a pretty juicy gap and a sign there’s real value backing the Chooks here if you’re looking to go against the grain.

In Summary

Even though we’re tipping the Broncos to get the win, the value lies with the Roosters. Our analysis gives them a much better shot than the odds suggest, making that $3.50 a tempting roughie. If you’re on the hunt for a high-upside play, the Roosters are well worth a look.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Broncos: 32.8, Roosters: 16.8 – (Broncos by 16 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Broncos: 19.6, Roosters: 29.2 – (Broncos by 9.6 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Broncos: 19.0, Roosters: 6.0 – (Broncos by 13 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Broncos: 10.0, Roosters: 17.0 – (Broncos more resilient by 7 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Broncos: 80.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Broncos by 80%)
• Highest Score For: Broncos: 50, Roosters: 38 – (Broncos by 12 points)
• Highest Score Against: Broncos: 32, Roosters: 50 – (Broncos by 18 points)
• Biggest Win: Broncos: 36, Roosters: 6 – (Broncos by 30 points)
• Biggest Loss: Broncos: 10, Roosters: 36 – (Broncos more resilient by 26 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Broncos: 70, Roosters: 70 – (Even)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Broncos: 32, Roosters: 20 – (Broncos by 12 points)
• Current Streak: Broncos: W3, Roosters: L3 – (Broncos momentum)
• Current Form: Broncos: WLWWW, Roosters: LWLLL – (Broncos edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Roosters: 100.0% – (Broncos by 100%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Broncos: 100.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Broncos by 100%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Broncos: 0.0%, Roosters: 0.0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Broncos won by 36 points (50-14) on 6th January 2026
• Previous Encounter: Broncos won by 22 points (40-18) on 3rd May 2024