Knights vs Raiders Prediction

Game 3 of Round 16 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on June 27 features the Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders at McDonald Jones Stadium on Friday evening. Get the latest NRL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Channel 9, & 9NOW. 🏉🔥

Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Predictions

Friday, June 27, 2025

8:00pm @ McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Final Score Prediction

Knights

17 : 26

Raiders

The Green Machine rolls into Newcastle with confidence sky-high and should have too much class for a struggling Knights outfit.

Canberra’s powerful forward pack and clinical edge attack will prove the difference.

Despite the home ground advantage, Newcastle’s defensive frailties and inconsistent attack make them vulnerable against a Raiders side hitting their straps.

Win Percentages

Knights
36.04%

Raiders
63.96%

The Market Assessment

The bookies have this one right – Canberra are deserved favourites at $1.30.

The Knights at $3.50 might tempt some optimists, but the smart money is on the Green Machine.

The 9.5-point line looks spot on with our predicted margin, making the head-to-head market the safer option than trying to pick the line.

Knights

Raiders

Why The Raiders Roll On

Canberra’s forward pack has been devastating in recent weeks, laying the platform for their dangerous backline to strike.

With Josh Papalii and Joe Tapine leading the charge, they’ll dominate the middle third.

Newcastle’s injury toll and lack of cohesion in attack make them sitting ducks for a Raiders side that smells blood in the water.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The power rankings tell a damning story for Newcastle:

Total Power Rank: Raiders dominate (3.67 vs 14.00)
Attack: Canberra averaging 12.9 more points
Defence: Raiders’ defensive line far superior
Form: Green Machine building momentum
Away Record: Raiders strong on the road

Game Style Prediction: Blowout with moderate scoring. Raiders to control from the outset.
Expected Total: 43 points – around the league average

Our Betting Strategy

Value Play: Raiders 1-12

Raiders 1-12 @ $3.00

With Raiders at prohibitive odds, the 1-12 margin band offers the best value. This covers a comfortable win without needing a blowout.

Alternative: Raiders -9.5

Raiders -9.5 @ $1.85

If you believe in the blowout, the line bet offers better value than the head-to-head. Our model suggests they’ll cover by the narrowest of margins.

Safe Multi Builder: Raiders Win

Raiders @ $1.30

While the price is short, this is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find this round. Perfect for anchoring multi-bets.

The Newcastle Nightmare

The Knights have been their own worst enemy this season. Poor discipline, costly errors, and a lack of attacking cohesion have plagued their campaign

Danger Game: If Newcastle can somehow lift for their home crowd and play error-free football, they could make this interesting. But that’s a big if.