Game 3 of Round 11 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on May 17 features the Dolphins vs Warriors at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Predictions
Saturday, May 17, 2026
3:00 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Final Score Prediction
Dolphins
18 : 18
Warriors
Win Percentages
Dolphins49.76%
Warriors50.24%
Dolphins
Warriors
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Dolphins set at $1.94, and $1.85 for the New Zealand Warriors, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Dolphins
48.84%
Warriors
51.16%
The Betting Edge
Unibet’s got this one just about even, with the Warriors at $1.85 (51.16% implied chance) and the Dolphins only a smidge behind at $1.94 (48.84%). But according to our model? It’s basically a dead heat, Dolphins at 49.76%, Warriors at 50.24%.
So yeah, we’re splitting hairs here. The market’s nailed the closeness of this one, but interestingly, the deeper numbers actually give a slight lean toward the Dolphins, especially when you dig into the form guide and power rankings.
That means the value, even if only a small one, leans toward the Dolphins at $1.94. They’ve got the edge in adjusted attacking stats, total power score, and average winning margin, so backing them might just squeeze out a little profit if this turns into the grindfest we’re expecting.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Here’s how the two teams compare based on the latest performance metrics:
Dolphins vs Warriors Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins by 2.8 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Warriors by 2 points
Power Rank: Warriors by 1
Average Winning Margin: Dolphins by 10 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Dolphins by 3 points
Win %: Warriors by 38%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Warriors by 3 ranks
Average Opponent Win %: Warriors by 16%
Average Opponent Points For: Warriors by 4 points
Highest Score For: Dolphins by 6 points
Highest Score Against: Dolphins by 2 points
Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins by 12 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Warriors by 10 points
Adjusted Points For: Dolphins by 3 points
Adjusted Points Against: Warriors by 4 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Dolphins by 0.8
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 44.2
Game Style Prediction: Grinder
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Dolphins: 8.33, Warriors: 11.83 – (Dolphins by 3.5)
Over/Under Tempo: Slow tempo game expected, classic grind style.
Game Style Prediction: Grinder. Could be a tough, low-scoring arm wrestle where field position rules.
What to do?
This one’s a toss-up, and the bookies know it. But if we’re talking about tiny edges (and that’s the game, right?), the Dolphins offer just that. Their adjusted scoring, winning margins, and power ratings suggest they’re a touch undervalued at $1.94.
If you’re looking for a bit of value in a coin-flip matchup, backing the Dolphins might be the smarter punt, especially in a gritty battle where little moments decide the outcome.
In a game this close predicting the winner is not a smart bet, best option this game is to stick with the OVER/UNDER bet, both the expected tempo and our prediction suggest the final score will fall below the anticipated 48.5 set by the bookies so go the UNDER.
Looking at multis go the Dolphins 1-12, Dolphins +1.5, and the UNDER 48.5 for a handy little $11.57 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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