Richmond vs Collingwood Prediction

Richmond Tigers’ Season on the Line as Collingwood Roll into the MCG

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Away • $1.05

Sunday • MCG • Light drizzle

After watching Richmond claw their way to consecutive wins over Essendon and West Coast, I thought they might’ve turned a corner.

But those victories came against two of the bottom four – and the Tigers’ underlying numbers still scream danger.

Now they’re facing a Collingwood side that’s dropped their last two by a combined seven points.

When a team can’t buy a win meets a team that can barely find one, something’s gotta give at the MCG this Sunday.

The last time these old rivals met, Collingwood put up 115 points in a demolition job.

Richmond’s most recent outing saw them put West Coast to the sword 105-56, but before that? Three straight losses by an average of 73 points.

The Pies meanwhile just lost a heartbreaker to Fremantle by a single point after dropping a six-point game to Gold Coast.

That’s the difference between these sides right now – one’s getting blown out, the other’s losing nail-biters.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, the line market jumped off the page at me.

Richmond’s getting 45.5 points start and while that seems massive, their recent form against quality opposition suggests it might not be enough.

The total also caught my eye – 156.5 points feels low even with light drizzle forecast, especially given Collingwood’s ability to pile on scores against weaker defences.

BEST BET

Collingwood -45.5

$1.90

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VALUE BET

Over 156.5 Total Points

$1.88

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SMART HEDGE

Richmond +45.5

$1.90

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Here’s where the data gets interesting. My model’s been tracking both teams’ recent scoring patterns and defensive struggles, and the numbers paint a clear picture.

Richmond’s averaging just 62.6 points in their last five while conceding 94.8 – that’s a recipe for disaster against a Collingwood outfit that’s put up 90.4 points per game recently.

Our Data Says: Richmond 63, Collingwood 95 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Collingwood a 66.5% win chance, Richmond 33.5%

Bookmakers have Collingwood at $1.05 (95% implied) vs Richmond at $10.00 (10% implied)

The Market Edge: The spread offers value – our 32-point margin vs the 45.5-point line suggests taking Richmond with the start

Our Prediction

RIC 63 | COL 95

Win Probability

RIC 33.5% | COL 66.5%

Market Edge

24%

on Richmond

FORM LINE

Richmond’s last five tells a brutal story. Yes, they’ve won their last two, but dig deeper – those wins came against West Coast (16th) and Essendon (15th).

Before that? Geelong put 124 on them, Adelaide dropped 122, and the Bulldogs piled on 135. That’s three losses by 72, 68, and 79 points respectively. Their average losing margin in defeats this season? A whopping 69 points.

Collingwood’s form reads differently. They’ve dropped their last two games by a combined seven points – losses to Fremantle by one point and Gold Coast by six points.

But check their – wins 115 against Carlton, 108 against St Kilda. When the Pies get going, they can absolutely bury teams. They’re 3-2 in their last five with all three wins by 29+ points.

Richmond Tigers

WWLLL

Yes, they’ve won their last two, but dig deeper – those wins came against West Coast (16th) and Essendon (15th).
Before that? Geelong put 124 on them, Adelaide dropped 122, and the Bulldogs piled on 135.

Collingwood Magpies

LLWWW

They’ve dropped their last two games by a combined seven points – losses to Fremantle by one point and Gold Coast by six points.
Check their wins – 115 against Carlton, 108 against St Kilda.

KEY STATS

The statistical gap between these sides is stark.

Collingwood averages 13.2 goals per game to Richmond’s 9.2 – that’s a four-goal difference before the bounce. The Pies also dominate territory, averaging 53.3 inside 50s to Richmond’s 44.6.

When you’re getting into attack nine more times per game and converting at a higher rate, margins tend to blow out.

Richmond’s disposal efficiency sits at 72.4% compared to Collingwood’s 72% – virtually identical.

But here’s the kicker: Collingwood averages 128.6 contested possessions to Richmond’s 122.1.

They’re winning the hard ball and using it just as well. Add in their +2.9 clearance advantage per game and you’ve got a midfield mismatch brewing.

GOALS PER GAME

COL
13.2

RIC
9.2

INSIDE 50S

COL
53.3

RIC
44.6

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY %

RIC
72.4

COL
72

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

COL
128.6

RIC
122.1

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

Look, I know what you’re thinking – 45.5 points is a massive line. But Richmond’s recent form against decent opposition has been diabolical. They’ve lost to every top-eight side by an average of 69 points this season.

Collingwood might’ve dropped their last two, but losing by seven points across two games is worlds apart from getting belted by 70.

The light drizzle forecast at the MCG might keep scoring down, but when one team averages four goals per game more than their opponent, weather becomes less of a factor.

My best bet remains Collingwood to cover the 45.5-point spread at $1.90. Sometimes the obvious play is the right play.

LOCK IT IN: Collingwood -45.5 @ $1.90

Collingwood to cover the 45.5-point spread at $1.90

BET NOW