Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 5

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Game 9 of Round 5 of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn on April 13 at Adelaide Oval on Sunday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, and Channel 7. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 13, 2025

7:20 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

Final Score Prediction

Power

75 : 88

Hawks

Win Percentages

Port Adelaide 43.5%

Hawthorn 56.5%

Power

Hawthorn

Quick Insight

At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Port Adelaide Power set at $2.80, and $1.45 for the Hawthorn Hawks, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Power 31.50%
Hawks 68.50%

Opportunity Bet

Hawthorn are paying $1.45, which suggests the bookies think they’re winning this close to 70% of the time. But based on our model, they’re more likely sitting around the 56.5% mark, still favourites, but not by that much.

That opens the door for value on Port Adelaide. The bookies have them at just a 31.5% chance, but our numbers say they’re closer to 43.5%. And with a $2.80 price tag, that’s a pretty tasty edge if you’re looking to back in the underdog.

In Summary

The edge here sits with Port Adelaide. While Hawthorn are still the more likely winners, the market’s given them a bit too much credit. If our numbers hold up, there’s solid value in the $2.80 odds for the Power, making them a live underdog worth a look.

What to do?

Digging deeper into the statistics Port Adelaide has had one of the easiest runs into this weeks match with an average opposition ranking of 12.5, whereas Hawthorn has had one of the hardest with an average opposition ranking of 5.5, thats a huge 7 rung ladder difference in who these teams have been playing.

The one thing Port Adelaide does have going in their favour is that they are playing at home in Adelaide in Gather Round, this will give Port the boost the need which makes the line bet much more attractive, do we think they will win? no, but do they have everything going in their favour to make the line bet a solid option? Absolutely.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Port Adelaide +14.5 @ $1.90 with
Ladbrokes

H-2-H Bet:

Hawthorn @ $1.45 with
Ladbrokes

Winning Margin Bet:

Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.15 with
Ladbrokes

OVER/UNDER Bet:

UNDER 174.5 @ $1.88 with
Ladbrokes

Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide: 79.3, Hawthorn: 90.8 – (Hawthorn by 11.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide: 91.3, Hawthorn: 71.3 – (Hawthorn by 20 points)
Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide: 72.0, Hawthorn: 19.5 – (Port Adelaide by 52.5 points)
Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide: 40.0, Hawthorn: N/A – (Hawthorn edge)
HT/FT Double %: Port Adelaide: 25.0%, Hawthorn: 75.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
Highest Score For: Port Adelaide: 140, Hawthorn: 111 – (Port Adelaide by 29 points)
Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide: 136, Hawthorn: 85 – (Hawthorn by 51 points)
Biggest Win: Port Adelaide: 72, Hawthorn: 26 – (Port Adelaide by 46 points)
Biggest Loss: Port Adelaide: 91, Hawthorn: N/A – (Hawthorn edge)
Highest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 208, Hawthorn: 196 – (Port Adelaide by 12 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 132, Hawthorn: 140 – (Port Adelaide by 8 points)
Goal Accuracy For %: Port Adelaide: 52.9%, Hawthorn: 60.2% – (Hawthorn by 7.3%)
Goal Accuracy Against %: Port Adelaide: 57.1%, Hawthorn: 54.1% – (Hawthorn by 3%)
Current Streak: Port Adelaide: L2, Hawthorn: W4 – (Hawthorn momentum)
Current Form: Port Adelaide: LWLL, Hawthorn: WWWW – (Hawthorn form advantage)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Port Adelaide won by 3 points (75-72) on 13th September 2024
Previous Encounter: Port Adelaide won by 1 point (80-79) on 19th May 2024