Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction

Hawthorn are paying $1.45, which suggests the bookies think they’re winning this close to 70% of the time. But based on our model, they’re more likely sitting around the 56.5% mark, still favourites, but not by that much.

That opens the door for value on Port Adelaide. The bookies have them at just a 31.5% chance, but our numbers say they’re closer to 43.5%. And with a $2.80 price tag, that’s a pretty tasty edge if you’re looking to back in the underdog.

In Summary

The edge here sits with Port Adelaide. While Hawthorn are still the more likely winners, the market’s given them a bit too much credit. If our numbers hold up, there’s solid value in the $2.80 odds for the Power, making them a live underdog worth a look.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Port Adelaide: 79.3, Hawthorn: 90.8 – (Hawthorn by 11.5 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Port Adelaide: 91.3, Hawthorn: 71.3 – (Hawthorn by 20 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide: 72.0, Hawthorn: 19.5 – (Port Adelaide by 52.5 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Port Adelaide: 40.0, Hawthorn: N/A – (Hawthorn edge)
• HT/FT Double %: Port Adelaide: 25.0%, Hawthorn: 75.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
• Highest Score For: Port Adelaide: 140, Hawthorn: 111 – (Port Adelaide by 29 points)
• Highest Score Against: Port Adelaide: 136, Hawthorn: 85 – (Hawthorn by 51 points)
• Biggest Win: Port Adelaide: 72, Hawthorn: 26 – (Port Adelaide by 46 points)
• Biggest Loss: Port Adelaide: 91, Hawthorn: N/A – (Hawthorn edge)
• Highest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 208, Hawthorn: 196 – (Port Adelaide by 12 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Port Adelaide: 132, Hawthorn: 140 – (Port Adelaide by 8 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Port Adelaide: 52.9%, Hawthorn: 60.2% – (Hawthorn by 7.3%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Port Adelaide: 57.1%, Hawthorn: 54.1% – (Hawthorn by 3%)
• Current Streak: Port Adelaide: L2, Hawthorn: W4 – (Hawthorn momentum)
• Current Form: Port Adelaide: LWLL, Hawthorn: WWWW – (Hawthorn form advantage)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, Hawthorn: 0.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Port Adelaide: 50.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 50%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Port Adelaide: 0.0%, Hawthorn: 100.0% – (Hawthorn by 100%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Port Adelaide won by 3 points (75-72) on 13th September 2024
• Previous Encounter: Port Adelaide won by 1 point (80-79) on 19th May 2024