Collingwood vs Geelong Prediction

The Betting Edge

The bookies have Collingwood fairly solid favourites with a 59.14% chance, but our deep dive suggests they’re not quite that far ahead, sitting closer to 53.27%. That creates a sneaky bit of value around Geelong at $2.33 if you’re looking for an underdog worth a punt.

The Magpies should still be favourites, but this one feels much tighter than the market suggests.

Power Rankings Breakdown

Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:

• Predicted Final Score: Collingwood 94 – 87 Geelong
• Average Points For: Collingwood 92.57, Geelong 95.00 (Geelong by 2.43 points)
• Average Points Against: Collingwood 66.00, Geelong 79.43 (Collingwood much stronger by 13.43 points)
• Win Percentage: Collingwood 85.71%, Geelong 57.14% (Magpies by 28.57%)
• Adjusted Points For: Collingwood 80.38, Geelong 90.11 (Geelong ahead by 9.73 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood 68.46, Geelong 79.76 (Collingwood ahead by 11.3 points)
• Over/Under Tempo: 159.4 (Expect a fast-paced match)
• Game Style Prediction: Shootout

What to do?

It’s close, Collingwood sit 2nd on the power rankings while Geelong are right behind in 3rd. And when we look at True Power Scores, it’s almost dead even, Geelong actually edge it slightly (4.40 vs 4.60).

Both sides have played strong opponents, but Collingwood’s wins have come against tougher teams (average opponent win % of 65.18% vs Geelong’s 54.76%), giving them a slight form boost.

Offensively, the Cats have the edge in raw and adjusted points, but the Pies are far more solid in the backline, and that could be the key in a game that’s expected to open right up.

All things considered, Collingwood deserve their favouritism, but if you love a bit of value and enjoy riding an underdog, the Cats at $2.33 are one of the few decent underdogs this week.

In what is expected to be a super close game, take the Cats +8.5 line with Unibet to double back yourself incase Geelong almost cause an upset (or do).

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood: 92.57, Geelong: 95.00 – (Geelong by 2.43 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood: 66.00, Geelong: 79.43 – (Collingwood by 13.43 points)
• Power Rank: Collingwood: 2, Geelong: 3 – (Collingwood by 1)
• Average Winning Margin: Collingwood: 39.67, Geelong: 35.75 – (Collingwood by 3.92 points)
• SoS Adjusted Points For: Collingwood: 80.38, Geelong: 90.11 – (Geelong by 9.73 points)
• Win Percentage: Collingwood: 85.71%, Geelong: 57.14% – (Collingwood by 28.57%)
• Average Opponent Rank: Collingwood: 6.17, Geelong: 6.79 – (Collingwood by 0.62 ranks)
• Average Opponent Win %: Collingwood: 65.18%, Geelong: 54.76% – (Collingwood by 10.42%)
• Average Opponent Points For: Collingwood: 89.03, Geelong: 89.86 – (Collingwood by 0.83 points)
• Highest Score For: Collingwood: 136.00, Geelong: 147.00 – (Geelong by 11 points)
• Highest Score Against: Collingwood: 104.00, Geelong: 100.00 – (Geelong by 4 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 187.00, Geelong: 219.00 – (Geelong by 32 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood: 109.00, Geelong: 131.00 – (Collingwood by 22 points)
• Adjusted Points For: Collingwood: 80.38, Geelong: 90.11 – (Geelong by 9.73 points)
• Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood: 68.46, Geelong: 79.76 – (Collingwood by 11.3 points)
• True Power Score (Weighted): Collingwood: 4.60, Geelong: 4.40 – (Geelong by 0.2 points)
• OVER/UNDER Tempo: 159.4
• Game Style Prediction: Shootout