GWS vs North Melbourne Prediction

Giants Set to Bounce Back Against Struggling Roos in Canberra

Home • $1.04

Away • $11.00

Sunday • Manuka Oval • Possible Wet Conditions

The Giants have dropped one on the trot after a phenomenal six-game winning streak, but are they really as vulnerable as the $1.04 head-to-head odds suggest?

I’ve been tracking both these sides closely, and while North Melbourne’s young guns are starting to fire, there’s a significant class gap that should show up on Sunday afternoon at Manuka Oval.

Last time these teams met in Round 1, Jesse Hogan absolutely monstered the undermanned Roos backline with six goals in a 39-point Giants victory.

North actually led at quarter-time after kicking a remarkable 8.0 straight, but once Tom Green (37 disposals) and the Giants midfield got rolling, it was game over.

Fast forward to now – the Giants just copped an 88-point hiding from the Bulldogs, while North pushed St Kilda right to the final siren in a 9-point loss. The Roos have now lost six straight, but they’re showing genuine fight.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing value everywhere except the head-to-head market. The Giants at $1.04 is prohibitive, but that 49.5-point line feels inflated given their recent defensive wobbles and North’s improving midfield.

The total also catches my eye – both teams’ recent form suggests a lower-scoring affair than the 164.5 on offer.

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

North Melbourne +49.5

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Under 164.5 Total Points

$1.88

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Giants 1-39 winning margin

$3.25

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

My data modelling has been spot on with these lopsided matchups lately, and this one’s throwing up some interesting angles. The market’s painting this as a massacre, but the numbers tell a different story when you dig deeper into recent form and scoring trends.

Our Data Says: GWS 81, North Melbourne 69 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives GWS a 61.1% win chance, North Melbourne 38.9%

Bookmakers have GWS at $1.04 (96.2% implied) vs North Melbourne at $11.00 (9.1% implied)

The Market Edge: North Melbourne offers massive value – our 38.9% vs market’s 9.1% implied chance

Our Prediction

GWS 81 | NM 69

Win Probability

GWS 61.1% | NM 38.9%

Market Edge

29.8%

on North Melbourne

FORM LINE

Look, I know what you’re thinking – the Giants won four straight before their recent stumble, while North can’t buy a win. But check who the Giants played in that loss: a rampaging Western Bulldogs side that put 132 points on them.

That’s concerning for a team that prides itself on defensive structure.

The Giants’ scoring has dropped from 107 points per game during their winning streak to just 44 against the Dogs.

Meanwhile, North’s actually been competitive in defeat – they won clearances against St Kilda and nearly pinched it late.

GWS Giants

LWWWW

Giants Last 5: LWWWW – averaging 94.4 points for, 76.6 against

North Melbourne Kangaroos

LLLWL

Kangaroos Last 5: LLLWL – averaging 67.8 points for, 99.2 against

KEY STATS

Here’s where it gets interesting. The season averages suggest a comfortable Giants win, but the recent trends paint a different picture.

That 2-point gap in goals per game has been flipped in recent weeks.

GOALS PER GAME

GWS
13.0

NM
11.0

INSIDE 50S

GWS
50.5

NM
45.0

CLEARANCES

NM
39.7

GWS
35.4

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

GWS
128.9

NM
127.6

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

NM
74.1%

GWS
73.7%

THE FINAL WORD

This shapes as one of those games where the market’s overreacted to recent results. Yes, the Giants should win – they’re the better team playing at a ground where they’ve been strong. But 49.5 points?

Against a North Melbourne side that’s shown fight and actually wins clearances?

My best bet remains North Melbourne with the 49.5-point start at $1.90. The Giants will likely win, but not by the seven-goal margin the bookies are predicting.

In wet conditions that could materialise in Canberra, this has all the makings of a grinding affair that stays well under the total too.

LOCK IT IN: North Melbourne +49.5 @ $1.90

The Giants should win, but the Roos to cover the hefty line looks the play.

BET NOW