Fremantle vs Gold Coast Prediction

Dockers Ready to Sink Suns’ Finals Dream at Fortress Optus

Home • $1.55

Away • $2.45

Saturday night • Optus Stadium • 100% chance of rain

Can the Gold Coast SUNS ride their 95-point demolition job into September success, or will Fremantle’s home fortress prove too tough to crack in this elimination final?

After tracking both teams’ contrasting form lines, I’ve spotted some juicy value in what shapes as a classic finals arm-wrestle at Optus Stadium on Saturday night.

Both teams come in red-hot after emphatic Round 24 victories. The Suns obliterated Essendon by 95 points – their biggest-ever win – with Ben King booting seven goals in a statement performance.

Meanwhile, Freo overcame an early deficit to pile on seven unanswered goals in the second quarter against the Western Bulldogs, booking their finals ticket in style.

The last time these sides met in Round 12, Shai Bolton turned superhero in torrential rain at Carrara, kicking three goals and setting up the sealer as the Dockers held off a late Suns surge to win by 11 points.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Fremantle 53.6% chance to win (90-78 predicted score)

Market odds: $1.55 (64.5% implied)

Edge: -10.9% – terrible value on favourites

Our model: Gold Coast 46.4% chance to win

Market odds: $2.45 (40.8% implied)

Edge: +5.6% – solid value on underdogs

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Fremantle -10.5

$1.90

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VALUE BET

Under 164.5 Total Points

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Gold Coast Suns Head-to-Head

$2.45

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Our Data Says: Fremantle 90, Gold Coast 78 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form trends)

That gives Fremantle a 53.6% win chance, Gold Coast 46.4%

Bookmakers have Fremantle at $1.55 (64.5% implied) vs Gold Coast at $2.45 (40.8% implied)

The Market Edge: Gold Coast offers exceptional value here. When I crunch the numbers, the Suns have a 46.4% chance of winning but the bookies only give them 40.8% – that’s a healthy +5.6% edge in our favour. The 10.5-point line also presents opportunity with our predicted 12-point margin being close to that number.

Our Prediction

FRE 90 | GCS 78

Win Probability

FRE 53.6% | GCS 46.4%

Market Edge

5.6%

on Gold Coast

FORM LINE

Look, I know what you’re thinking – Fremantle have won 4 of their last 5, but here’s the kicker: they’re actually scoring 10 points per game LESS than their season average during this “hot streak”. Their 44-point effort against Brisbane was particularly concerning, saved only by facing depleted opposition in recent weeks. The Suns? They’ve split their last 5 games 3-2, but that Essendon demolition saw them pile on 153 points – their highest score all season. More importantly, they’re averaging 117.7 points in their three wins compared to just 71.5 in their losses, showing they can absolutely pile on the scoreboard pressure when they’re on.

Fremantle Dockers

WWWWL

Fremantle have won 4 of their last 5, but here’s the kicker: they’re actually scoring 10 points per game LESS than their season average during this “hot streak”.

Gold Coast Suns

WLWLW

They’ve split their last 5 games 3-2, but that Essendon demolition saw them pile on 153 points – their highest score all season.
They’re averaging 117.7 points in their three wins compared to just 71.5 in their losses, showing they can absolutely pile on the scoreboard pressure when they’re on.

KEY STATS

Here’s what caught my eye in the season averages: Gold Coast average 1.3 more goals per game (13.8 vs 12.5) and dominate the inside 50 count by nearly 5 entries per match (57 vs 52.3).

When I factor in the Suns’ superior clearance numbers (40.1 vs 38) and contested possession edge (134.7 vs 131.8), it’s clear they can match Freo’s physicality.

That 73.9% disposal efficiency from Gold Coast also suggests they’ll handle the finals pressure – critical when every possession counts in September.

GOALS PER GAME

Gold Coast
13.8

Fremantle
12.5

INSIDE 50S

Gold Coast
57

Fremantle
52.3

CLEARANCES

Gold Coast
40.1

Fremantle
38

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Gold Coast
134.7

Fremantle
131.8

THE FINAL WORD

After crunching these numbers, I’m seeing genuine value in backing the Suns to keep this close – if not pinch it outright.

Yes, Optus Stadium is a fortress and yes, Freo have the finals experience, but when the bookies are giving you 10.5 points with a team that’s shown they can score 150+ on their day?

That’s an opportunity worth considering.

The wet Perth conditions (100% chance of rain) should keep scoring in check, making that Under 164.5 play even more attractive with our predicted 168 total likely to drop in the wet. But the best bet?

Take Fremantle -10.5. In a nervy elimination final where every goal counts, backing the home team to cover makes sense given our model projection.

LOCK IT IN: Fremantle -10.5

Back the Dockers to cover the 10.5-point line.

BET NOW