Essendon vs St Kilda Prediction

THE SAINTS TO BLOW UP THE BOMBERS

Home • $4.00

VS

Away • $1.25

Round 23 • Marvel Stadium • TBD

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Essendon 23% chance to win

Market odds: $4.00 (25% implied)

Edge: -2% – no value here

Our model: St Kilda 77% chance to win

Market odds: $1.25 (80% implied)

Edge: -3% – market’s got this right

Line betting offers the best opportunity here. With St Kilda giving 26.5 points start:

Our predicted margin: St Kilda by 31 points

Market line: St Kilda -26.5 @ $1.90

Edge: +4.5 points in our favour – that’s solid value

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Let me walk you through how I landed on these numbers. After crunching the recent form data and season averages, here’s what the model spits out:

Our Data Says: St Kilda 82, Essendon 51 (based on recent scoring trends adjusted for defensive form)

That calculation comes from Essendon averaging just 52.4 points in their last 5 games – that’s a massive 28 points below their season average of 80.2. Meanwhile, St Kilda’s defence has tightened up considerably, conceding only 83.2 points per game recently compared to their season average of 85.

That gives St Kilda a 77% win chance, Essendon 23%

Bookmakers have St Kilda at $1.25 (80% implied) vs Essendon at $4.00 (25% implied)

The Market Edge: The line bet offers genuine value. My predicted 31-point margin exceeds the 26.5-point line by 4.5 points – that’s roughly a 7% edge when you factor in the $1.90 odds. The total points market is even more attractive, with my predicted 133 points sitting well under the 168.5 line.

FORM LINE

The contrast couldn’t be starker. Essendon’s last five reads like a horror novel: five straight losses by an average margin of 43 points, managing just 262 total points across those games. That’s an average of 52.4 points per game – absolutely dire for a team that should be pushing for finals.

St Kilda’s recent run shows the complete opposite trajectory. Three wins from their last five, including impressive victories over Melbourne (by 6) and North Melbourne (by 9), before grinding out that 4-pointer against Richmond. They’re averaging 79.8 points while conceding just 83.2 – that’s a -3.4 differential that still shows defensive improvement.

The scoring trends tell the real story here. Essendon has failed to crack 60 points in four of their last five outings, while St Kilda has held three of their last five opponents under 70.

KEY STATS

Here’s where the numbers get really interesting. Season-long, St Kilda averages 11.6 goals per game to Essendon’s 9.7 – that’s nearly a two-goal advantage before we even factor in current form.

The inside 50 count slightly favours St Kilda (48.4 to 47.4), but it’s the conversion rate that kills the Bombers.

The clearance battle shapes as crucial. St Kilda holds a +2.8 advantage in clearances per game (37.7 to 34.9), and with Essendon’s midfield decimated by injuries, that gap should widen. When you combine that with disposal efficiency – Essendon at 73.3% vs St Kilda’s 72.4% – it’s clear both teams move the ball reasonably well, but only one is hitting the scoreboard.

Most telling? Essendon’s scoring has dropped 28 points below their season average during this losing streak. That’s not just poor form – that’s a systematic breakdown.