Collingwood vs Melbourne Prediction

ARE THE DEES A SNEAKY CHANCE?

Home • $1.33

Away • $3.40

Friday • MCG • 13-degree conditions with 63% cloud cover

Looking at this Friday night blockbuster between Collingwood and Melbourne at the MCG, we’ve got a classic case of two proud clubs heading in opposite directions.

The Pies opened as $1.33 favourites despite their horrific recent form, while the Demons drift out to $3.40 – and I reckon there’s something seriously wrong with those prices.

Remember Round 13?

That instant classic where the Pies scraped home by a single point after Dan McStay’s late goal and Max Gawn’s miskick landed in Will Hoskin-Elliott’s lap with 35 seconds left.

Josh Daicos took home the Neale Daniher Trophy that night, but Pickett and Fritsch almost stole it with five final-term goals between them.

Fast forward to now, and both teams look shells of themselves – Collingwood blew a 25-point quarter-time lead against Adelaide last week, while Melbourne copped a 36-point hiding from Hawthorn.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Collingwood 53.7% chance to win

Market odds: $1.33 (75.2% implied)

Edge: -21.5% – massive overlay on the Pies

Recommendation: Melbourne head-to-head @ $3.40

BEST BET

Melbourne head-to-head @ $3.40 (Edge: +16.9%)

$3.40

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VALUE BET

Melbourne +20.5 @ $1.90 (Edge: +5.8%)

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Under 164.5 total points @ $1.90 (Edge: +8.3%)

$1.90

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Our Data Says: Collingwood 87, Melbourne 75 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form decline)

That gives Collingwood a 53.7% win chance, Melbourne 46.3%

Bookmakers have Collingwood at $1.33 (75.2% implied) vs Melbourne at $3.40 (29.4% implied)

The Market Edge: Here’s where it gets interesting.

My model shows Melbourne with a 46.3% chance, but the market only gives them 29.4%.

That’s a whopping +16.9% edge on the Demons head-to-head. Even accounting for model uncertainty, there’s clear value backing Melbourne at these odds.

The 12-point margin prediction also supports taking Melbourne +20.5, giving us a +5.8% edge on the line.

Our Prediction

COL 87 | MEL 75

Win Probability

COL 53.7% | MEL 46.3%

Market Edge

+16.9%

on Melbourne

FORM LINE

Looking at the last five games tells a brutal story. Collingwood have dropped four of their last five, including that gut-wrenching loss to Adelaide where they coughed up a 25-point lead.

They’re averaging just 67.6 points across this stretch – that’s 7.4 points below their season average of 75 points per game. Their defence has been equally shocking, conceding an average of 79 points.

Melbourne’s form isn’t much better with just one win from five, but dig deeper and there’s hope.

They put up 139 against West Coast and pushed the Dogs to six points in a 105-99 thriller.

Their 90.8 points per game over this period is actually above their season average, though they’re leaking 85.4 points defensively. That Hawthorn demolition last week was ugly, but Jack Gunston’s seven goals was an outlier.

Collingwood Magpies

LLWLL

Collingwood have dropped four of their last five, including that gut-wrenching loss to Adelaide where they coughed up a 25-point lead. They’re averaging just 67.6 points across this stretch – that’s 7.4 points below their season average of 75 points per game. Their defence has been equally shocking, conceding an average of 79 points.

Melbourne Demons

LWLLL

Melbourne’s form isn’t much better with just one win from five, but dig deeper and there’s hope. They put up 139 against West Coast and pushed the Dogs to six points in a 105-99 thriller. Their 90.8 points per game over this period is actually above their season average, though they’re leaking 85.4 points defensively. That Hawthorn demolition last week was ugly, but Jack Gunston’s seven goals was an outlier.

KEY STATS

The season averages paint an intriguing picture. Collingwood average 12.5 goals per game to Melbourne’s 11.8 – just a 4.2-point difference.

Inside 50s are virtually identical (53.5 vs 52.7), as are clearances (36.6 vs 36.7). The key differential? Contested possessions, where Melbourne hold a significant 135.2 to 127.9 advantage.

When I calculate the expected total using both teams’ season scoring averages – (75 + 70.8) ÷ 2 × 2 = 145.8 points – it’s well under the 164.5 line.

Factor in both teams’ recent scoring struggles and the 13-degree conditions with 63% cloud cover, and the under looks a gift. That calculation alone gives us the under at 145.8, compared to the market’s 164.5 – an 18.7-point difference.

GOALS PER GAME

Coll
12.5

Mel
11.8

INSIDE 50s

Coll
53.5

Mel
52.7

CLEARANCES

Mel
36.7

Coll
36.6

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Mel
135.2

Coll
127.9

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to an upset here. Collingwood can’t buy a win, blowing leads and averaging just 68 points in their last five. Melbourne might have copped a hiding from Hawthorn, but they’ve shown they can score and Max Gawn was still dominant with 27 touches and 36 hitouts. At $3.40, the Demons represent genuine value with our model showing a +16.9% edge.

My main play is Melbourne head-to-head at those juicy odds. The 20.5 points start looks generous too given our 12-point margin prediction. And with both teams struggling for consistency and cool conditions forecast, hammer the under 164.5. Sometimes the best bets are when the market hasn’t caught up to reality – and right now, they’re massively underrating Melbourne’s chances in this one.

LOCK IT IN: Melbourne head-to-head @ $3.40

Demons to upset the Pies at the G

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