Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Showdown 58: Can Port Adelaide Spring an Upset in Enemy Territory?

Home • $1.17

Away • $5.10

Saturday • Adelaide Oval • Light rain forecast

Here’s the thing about Showdowns – the form guide tends to go out the window, but when one team is paying $5.10, you’ve got to wonder if the bookies have seen something we haven’t.

Adelaide and Port Adelaide clash at Adelaide Oval this Saturday night in what shapes as a fascinating contrast in form.

The Crows have won four of their last five, including a 61-point demolition of Gold Coast last Sunday where they kicked 16.11 to 6.10.

Port, meanwhile, copped a 38-point hiding from Hawthorn and have dropped three of their last five.

With light rain forecast and both teams’ recent scoring trends pointing in opposite directions, I’m seeing some interesting angles in this one.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers on this Showdown, the market’s overreacted to Port’s recent struggles.

Yes, Adelaide look good, but $5.10 for any team in a derby is massive overs.

My confidence is highest in the total points market though – both teams’ recent scoring patterns and that rain forecast are screaming unders.

BEST BET

Total Under 156.5 Points

$1.88

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VALUE BET

Port Adelaide +29.5

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Port Adelaide Head to Head

$5.10

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

My data model loves Adelaide here, but not as much as the bookies do.

The predicted scoreline based on season averages adjusted for recent form shows a comfortable but not massive Crows victory. Where things get interesting is comparing my win percentages to the market’s implied odds.

Our Data Says: Adelaide 93, Port Adelaide 69 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Adelaide a 65% win chance, Port Adelaide 35%

Bookmakers have Adelaide at $1.17 (85.5% implied) vs Port Adelaide at $5.10 (19.6% implied)

The Market Edge: Port Adelaide offers significant value – our 35% vs market’s 19.6% implied chance

Our Prediction

ADE 93 | PTA 69

Win Probability

ADE 65% | PTA 35%

Market Edge

15.4%

on Port Adelaide

FORM LINE

The form differential here is stark, and it’s reflected in those odds. Adelaide have been on fire recently, winning four of their last five with an average winning margin of 38.3 points in those victories.

Their only loss was a low-scoring 3-point defeat to Hawthorn where they kicked 5.14.

Port Adelaide’s form reads like a roller coaster – they’ve managed just two wins from their last five, with losses to Hawthorn (38 points), Brisbane (28 points), and Sydney (19 points).

What’s concerning for Power fans is their scoring – averaging just 78 points in their last five compared to Adelaide’s 94.

Adelaide Crows

WWWLW

Adelaide have been on fire recently, winning four of their last five with an average winning margin of 38.3 points in those victories.
Their only loss was a low-scoring 3-point defeat to Hawthorn where they kicked 5.14.

Port Adelaide Power

LLWLW

Port Adelaide’s form reads like a roller coaster – they’ve managed just two wins from their last five, with losses to Hawthorn (38 points), Brisbane (28 points), and Sydney (19 points).

KEY STATS

The season averages tell an interesting story about where this game could be won and lost.

Adelaide are averaging 14.7 goals per game at home this season, while Port manage just 11 goals per game on the road. That’s a significant 22-point differential right there.

Looking deeper, Adelaide’s contested possession dominance (137.6 vs 123.6) and superior inside 50 count (54.8 vs 51) suggest they’ll control field position.

Port actually shade the clearance battle (39.1 vs 38.4), but their disposal efficiency of 70.9% compared to Adelaide’s 71.4% might hurt them in those crucial contested moments.

Both teams’ defensive numbers have been leaky recently, which initially had me looking at the overs before that weather forecast changed everything.

GOALS PER GAME

Adelaide
14.7

Port
11

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Adelaide
137.6

Port
123.6

INSIDE 50s

Adelaide
54.8

Port
51

CLEARANCES

Port
39.1

Adelaide
38.4

DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY

Adelaide
71.4%

Port
70.9%

SELECTION WATCH

Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to an Adelaide victory here, but the market’s gone too far.

The Crows’ recent form is undeniable – they’re scoring freely and have momentum.

Port Adelaide have been inconsistent but they’re not a 30-point inferior team on their day.

Factor in the Showdown factor, those wet conditions limiting scoring, and suddenly that under 156.5 total at $1.88 looks like the play.

Adelaide should win, but in a lower-scoring, tighter contest than the bookies expect. Give me the under as my best bet, with a small play on Port +29.5 for value.

LOCK IT IN: Total Under 156.5 Points @ $1.88

Adelaide should win, but in a lower-scoring, tighter contest than the bookies expect. Give me the under as my best bet, with a small play on Port +29.5 for value.

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