Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction

Can the Crows Continue Their Finals Surge at Home?

Home • $1.83

Away • $2.00

Friday 7:40pm • Adelaide Oval • 12°C

Adelaide’s demolition of Port Adelaide in the Elimination Final has set up a blockbuster Semi Final against Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval.

The Crows’ 63-point thrashing of their cross-town rivals was their most dominant Showdown performance ever, and they’ll be looking to ride that momentum against a Hawks side coming off their own impressive finals win over GWS.

The last time these teams met in Round 21, it was an absolute thriller – 13 lead changes, momentum swings galore, and Riley Thilthorpe’s four-goal masterclass helping Adelaide secure a 14-point victory.

That game saw the Hawks kick the first five goals before the Crows responded with eight straight of their own. With both teams in red-hot form heading into this do-or-die clash, we could be in for another classic.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After crunching the numbers on this Semi Final, here’s where the value lies:

Under 165.5 Total Points @ $1.90 (Edge: +7.03%)

Hawthorn +2.5 @ $1.90 (Edge: +3.24%)

Adelaide Head-to-Head @ $1.83 (Edge: +2.36%)

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Under 165.5 Total Points

$1.90

BET NOW

VALUE BET

Hawthorn +2.5

$1.90

BET NOW

SMART HEDGE

Adelaide Head-to-Head

$1.83

BET NOW

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

The Market Edge: Adelaide offers slim value here.

Our model gives them a 56.96% chance of winning, while the market implies 54.6% – that’s a +2.36% edge.

But with only a 10-point projected margin, confidence is LOW ⚠️.

The real value remains the under. With our predicted total of 164 points against the line of 165.5, that’s where I’m loading up.

Our Prediction

ADE 87 | HAW 77

Win Probability

ADE 56.96% | HAW 43.04%

Market Edge

2.36%

on Adelaide (LOW confidence)

FORM LINE

Adelaide’s recent form is smoking hot – they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, with their only loss coming against Collingwood where they managed just 55 points.

But here’s the kicker: in those 4 wins, they’re averaging 90 points per game while keeping opponents to just 80.3. The defensive improvement has been remarkable.

Hawthorn’s form reads similarly impressive at 3-2 from their last five, but dig deeper and there are concerns.

They copped a 10-point loss to Brisbane (89-79) and were on the wrong end of that Round 21 thriller against Adelaide. Their wins have been convincing though – thumping Melbourne by 36 points and demolishing Collingwood by 64.

Adelaide Crows

W
W
W
L
W

Adelaide’s recent form is smoking hot – they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games, with their only loss coming against Collingwood where they managed just 55 points.

Hawthorn Hawks

W
L
W
W
L

Hawthorn’s form reads similarly impressive at 3-2 from their last five, but dig deeper and there are concerns.

KEY STATS

The season averages paint an interesting picture. Adelaide’s averaging 14.5 goals per game at home this year, while Hawthorn manages 13.2 on the road.

That 1.3 goal difference might not seem huge, but in a cutthroat final, it’s significant.

Here’s where it gets really interesting though – both teams average almost identical inside 50s (Adelaide 53.9, Hawthorn 53.0), but the Crows have been more efficient converting those entries.

Adelaide also edges the clearance battle 38.6 to 37.4, and in finals footy, winning the contested ball is crucial. Hawthorn’s 72.5% disposal efficiency is elite, but in the pressure cooker of September, that usually drops.

GOALS PER GAME

Adelaide
14.5

Hawthorn
13.2

INSIDE 50S

Adelaide
53.9

Hawthorn
53.0

CLEARANCES

Adelaide
38.6

Hawthorn
37.4

THE FINAL WORD

Everything points to a tight, low-scoring affair at Adelaide Oval.

The Crows’ recent defensive surge combined with the pressure of finals footy should keep this well under the 165.5 total. My model predicts Adelaide by 10 points (87–77), but confidence is LOW ⚠️.

Adelaide remain slight value at $1.83, but the smart money is on the under.

Adelaide’s home ground advantage and superior recent form give them the edge here, but at just a 2.36% overlay with a narrow margin, it’s not a bet-the-house scenario.

The under 165.5 total offers a more compelling 7.03% edge – that’s where I’m putting my money for this Semi Final thriller.

LOCK IT IN: Under 165.5 Total Points

The under 165.5 total offers a more compelling 7.03% edge – that’s where I’m putting my money for this Semi Final thriller.

BET NOW