Adelaide vs Collingwood Prediction

CROWS TO SOAR IN SEPTEMBER SHOWDOWN

Home • $1.57

Away • $2.35

Finals Week 1 • Adelaide Oval • 12°C

Will Adelaide’s red-hot form finally overcome their Collingwood hoodoo on the big stage?

After breaking a 10-game curse against the Pies just three weeks ago, the Crows host a wobbling Collingwood outfit at Adelaide Oval to kick off the 2025 finals series.

With Adelaide riding a nine-game winning streak to claim the minor premiership and Collingwood limping home with three losses in their last five, this Thursday night blockbuster shapes as the perfect storm for the home side – and the betting markets know it.

KRUZEY’S TIPS

After running the numbers through our prediction model, here’s what stands out:

Our model: Adelaide 90, Collingwood 68

That gives Adelaide a 56.9% win chance, Collingwood 43.1%

Bookmakers have Adelaide at $1.57 (63.7% implied) vs Collingwood at $2.40 (41.7% implied)

Here’s the mathematical edge on each market:

Adelaide head-to-head: Our 56.9% vs market 63.7% = -6.8% edge (poor value)

Collingwood head-to-head: Our 43.1% vs market 41.7% = +1.4% edge (marginal)

Adelaide -8.5: Our 22-point margin suggests they cover = +8.4% edge

Under 160.5: Our predicted 158 total vs market 160.5 = +2.5% edge

BEST BET

LINE BETTING

Adelaide -8.5

$1.90

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VALUE BET

Under 160.5

$1.90

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SMART HEDGE

Collingwood H2H

$2.35

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All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

While the head-to-head offers no value on Adelaide (we’re actually getting worse odds than their true chances), the line market at -8.5 provides genuine value.

Our 22-point predicted margin means Adelaide should cover this spread 61% of the time, but at $1.90 we only need them to cover 52.6% to break even.

That’s a healthy +8.4% edge in our favour.

Our Prediction

ADE 90 | COL 68

Win Probability

ADE 56.9% | COL 43.1%

Market Edge

8.4%

on Adelaide

FORM LINE

Looking at the last five games, Adelaide’s won all five including that crucial three-point victory over Collingwood in Round 23.

They’re averaging 79 points per game in this stretch – actually down from their season average of 88.2 – but their defence has been rock solid, conceding just 65.4 points.

Collingwood’s form shows more volatility with a 2-3 record, including three losses where they managed just 56, 46 and 65 points respectively.

Adelaide Crows

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They’re averaging 79 points per game in this stretch – actually down from their season average of 88.2 – but their defence has been rock solid, conceding just 65.4 points.

Collingwood Magpies

LWLLW

Collingwood’s form shows more volatility with a 2-3 record, including three losses where they managed just 56, 46 and 65 points respectively.

KEY STATS

The season averages reveal why Adelaide deserve favouritism but perhaps not to the extent the market suggests. Adelaide averages 14.7 goals per game at home versus Collingwood’s 12.4 away – that 2.3 goal (13.8 points) difference aligns with our predicted margin.

The inside 50 counts are virtually identical (54 vs 53.4), but Adelaide wins the clearance battle 38.7 to 36.1 and contested possessions 139 to 127.

GOALS PER GAME

Adelaide
14.7

Collingwood
12.4

INSIDE 50S

Adelaide
54

Collingwood
53.4

CLEARANCES

Adelaide
38.7

Collingwood
36.1

CONTESTED POSSESSIONS

Adelaide
139

Collingwood
127

THE FINAL WORD

This shapes as a classic September arm-wrestle where Adelaide’s consistency meets Collingwood’s September pedigree.

Our model suggests the Crows win by 22 points in a low-scoring affair totalling 158 points – well under the market’s 160.5 line.

While Adelaide head-to-head at $1.57 offers poor value (they’re actually over-bet by 6.8%), the -8.5 line provides a genuine +8.4% edge based on our predicted margin.

The smart money’s on Adelaide to cover the line at $1.90.

Don’t be tempted by the head-to-head markets – the real value lies in backing the Crows to win by double digits in what projects as a typically tight finals contest where every possession counts.

LOCK IT IN: Adelaide -8.5 @ $1.90

Adelaide to cover the -8.5 line in a tight, low-scoring finals battle.

BET NOW