Gold Coast vs Essendon Prediction

Suns Set to Scorch Struggling Bombers at People First

Home • $1.05

VS

Away • $10.00

Wednesday • People First Stadium • TBD

KRUZEY’S TIPS

Our model: Gold Coast 59.9% chance to win

Market odds: $1.05 (95.2% implied)

Edge: -35.3% – terrible value

Our predicted margin: Gold Coast by 30 points

Market line: Gold Coast -50.5 @ $1.90

Edge: +20.5 points in Essendon’s favour – excellent value

Our predicted total: 152 points

Market total: 170.5 points

Edge: 18.5 points under – significant value

All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting

KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET

Our Data Says: Gold Coast 91, Essendon 61 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)

That gives Gold Coast a 59.9% win chance, Essendon 40.1%

Bookmakers have Gold Coast at $1.05 (95.2% implied) vs Essendon at $10.00 (10.0% implied)

The Market Edge: While Gold Coast should win, the market’s massively overreacted.

Our 30-point predicted margin versus the 50.5-point line creates huge value backing Essendon with the start.

Let me walk you through the calculation: Gold Coast’s season average of 13.4 goals per game translates to roughly 80 points, but they’ve been scoring 87.3 in their last five.

Essendon averages 9.6 goals (58 points) but has dropped to just 60 points recently. Factor in Gold Coast’s defensive improvements and Essendon’s scoring woes, and you get our 91-61 prediction.

FORM LINE

The numbers paint a brutal picture for Essendon – five straight losses by an average margin of 37.4 points, with their attack managing just 65, 75, 56, 54 and 50 points across that horror stretch.

Gold Coast’s form shows more fight despite the 2-3 record, with victories over Carlton (19 points), Richmond (84 points) and Brisbane (66 points) before narrow losses to GWS (35 points) and Port Adelaide (4 points).

The SUNS are averaging 94.6 points in their last five compared to Essendon’s woeful 60 – that 34.6-point scoring differential tells the story.

KEY STATS

Here’s where it gets interesting – both teams share an identical 73.6% disposal efficiency, but that’s where the similarities end.

Gold Coast dominates the territory battle with 56.5 inside 50s per game to Essendon’s 46.9, while the clearance differential (40.3 to 34.2) and contested possession count (135.1 to 126.3) both heavily favour the home side.

When I calculate expected scoring based on inside 50 differentials, Gold Coast should be winning by approximately 25-30 points on average – right in line with our prediction but well short of the 50.5-point line.

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