Knights vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 6

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights Predictions

Game 8 of Round 6 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 12 features the Knights vs Wests Tigers at McDonald Jones Stadium on Sunday Afternoon. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine & Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Sunday, April 13, 2025

4:05 pm @ McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Final Score Prediction

Knights

16 : 21

Wests Tigers

Win Percentages

Knights 44%

Wests Tigers 56%

Knights

Tigers

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Newcastle Knights is set at $1.52, and $2.55 for the Wests Tigers, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Knights 62.65%
Tigers 37.35%

Opportunity Bet

The Knights are paying $1.52, which reflects a hefty 62.65% implied chance of winning. But our model’s not buying it, we’ve got them at just 44%, meaning they’re seriously overvalued at that price.

Now here’s the juicy bit, the Tigers. Priced at $2.55, the bookies have them at only a 37.35% chance. But based on our analysis, they’re actually more likely to win, sitting at 56%. That’s a massive edge, and one that makes the Tigers a red-hot value bet in this one.

In Summary

Wests Tigers are being seriously underrated here. With our numbers giving them the upper hand, that $2.55 price tag offers excellent value. If you’re hunting for a strong edge and don’t mind backing the away side, the Tigers are the smart play.

What to do?

The Knights have the home ground advantage this week, and even with the fans in their favour, our model points towards a Wests Tigers win. We can’t really look at historical game data with this game as the “New Tigers” have flipped the script on the way they used to play. The Knights aren’t scoring incredibly high this season and with a highest score this season of 26 (only three points higher than Wests average), the Tigers highest score for is more than triple the Knights average.

Both teams are sitting on a loss so they will both be fighting hard to regain some status, but the Wests Tigers should take this one pretty comfortably. At the Knights home we can’t guarantee a winning margin of over or under 12 points so best bet here is to just hit it on the nose.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Wests Tigers H-2-H @ $2.45 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Wests Tigers 1-12 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $3.75 with
bet365

Line Bet:

Wests Tigers +5.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 44.5 (NOT RECOMMENDED) @ $1.91 with
bet365

Knights vs Wests Tigers SGM

Knights vs Wests Tigers Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Knights: 10.5, Wests Tigers: 23.6 – (Wests Tigers by 13.1 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Knights: 16.5, Wests Tigers: 21.2 – (Knights by 4.7 points)
Average Winning Margin: Knights: 8.0, Wests Tigers: 19.0 – (Wests Tigers by 11 points)
Average Losing Margin: Knights: 20.0, Wests Tigers: 8.7 – (Wests Tigers more resilient by 11.3 points)
HT/FT Double %: Knights: 25.0%, Wests Tigers: 20.0% – (Knights by 5%)
Highest Score For: Knights: 26, Wests Tigers: 32 – (Wests Tigers by 6 points)
Highest Score Against: Knights: 26, Wests Tigers: 46 – (Knights by 20 points)
Biggest Win: Knights: 14, Wests Tigers: 26 – (Wests Tigers by 12 points)
Biggest Loss: Knights: 20, Wests Tigers: 22 – (Knights more resilient by 2 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Knights: 38, Wests Tigers: 70 – (Wests Tigers by 32 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Knights: 18, Wests Tigers: 18 – (Even)
Current Streak: Knights: L2, Wests Tigers: L2 – (Even)
Current Form: Knights: WWLL, Wests Tigers: LWWLL – (Wests Tigers edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Knights: 0.0%, Wests Tigers: 50.0% – (Knights by 50%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Knights: 100.0%, Wests Tigers: 50.0% – (Knights by 50%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Knights: 33.3%, Wests Tigers: 50.0% – (Wests Tigers by 16.7%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Knights won by 2 points (10-8) on 7th March 2025
Previous Encounter: Knights won by 16 points (34-18) on 11th August 2024