Richmond vs Fremantle Prediction

Fremantle are clear favourites here, and fair enough. But the bookies have gone pretty hard, giving them an 82.44% chance of winning based on their $1.15 odds. Our numbers aren’t quite that bullish though, we’ve got Freo at a solid but more grounded 66.5%.

Now let’s talk Tigers. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 17.56% shot, but our analysis puts them at 33.5%. That’s nearly double the chance the market’s giving them, and at $5.40, that’s a *big* edge. It’s a long shot, sure, but definitely some sneaky value there for the brave punter.

In Summary

Freo should win, but the market’s way too confident in them. Richmond’s chances are being seriously underrated, and if our numbers are on the money, that $5.40 price is juicy value. If you’re up for a bold play, the Tigers are absolutely worth a cheeky look here. If you are looking for a Richmond win, go the 1-39 for more value @ $6.00.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Richmond: 73.3, Fremantle: 84.3 – (Fremantle by 11 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Richmond: 115.5, Fremantle: 91.0 – (Fremantle by 24.5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Richmond: 13.0, Fremantle: 27.0 – (Fremantle by 14 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Richmond: 60.7, Fremantle: 40.5 – (Fremantle more resilient by 20.2 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 50.0% – (Fremantle by 50%)
• Highest Score For: Richmond: 90, Fremantle: 106 – (Fremantle by 16 points)
• Highest Score Against: Richmond: 140, Fremantle: 147 – (Richmond by 7 points)
• Biggest Win: Richmond: 13, Fremantle: 38 – (Fremantle by 25 points)
• Biggest Loss: Richmond: 82, Fremantle: 78 – (Fremantle more resilient by 4 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Richmond: 208, Fremantle: 216 – (Fremantle by 8 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Richmond: 151, Fremantle: 133 – (Fremantle by 18 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Richmond: 57.5%, Fremantle: 59.8% – (Fremantle by 2.3%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Richmond: 60.2%, Fremantle: 64.3% – (Richmond by 4.1%)
• Current Streak: Richmond: L3, Fremantle: W2 – (Fremantle momentum)
• Current Form: Richmond: WLLL, Fremantle: LLWW – (Fremantle edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 33.3% – (Richmond by 33.3%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Richmond: 0.0%, Fremantle: 66.7% – (Fremantle by 66.7%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Richmond: 25.0%, Fremantle: 0.0% – (Richmond by 25%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Fremantle won by 51 points (105-54) on 6th July 2024
• Previous Encounter: Fremantle won by 54 points (103-49) on 5th May 2024