Adelaide vs Geelong Prediction

Pretty tight between the bookies and our model on this one, the Crows are just slightly more favoured in our numbers (58.5%) compared to the bookies’ 57.85%. Same goes for the Cats, with the bookies giving them a touch more hope than we do.

So, what’s the play here? Well, since our predicted win percentage for the Crows is only a smidge higher than the bookies’, there’s not a massive edge on that front. But if you’re backing Adelaide, $1.58 is pretty fair, it lines up closely with their actual chances of winning.

Geelong at $2.35? That’s not screaming value based on our numbers, since we’re only giving them a 41.5% chance. Unless you reckon they’ll outperform expectations, it’s probably one to steer clear of for now.

In Summary

There’s no standout value bet here, both teams’ odds are pretty much bang-on with their actual chances. Might be one to just enjoy as a fan rather than chase a big edge. That said, Crows by 1-39 sounds like a cracking win if you’re cheering them on!

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: Adelaide: 125.0, Geelong: 96.0 – (Adelaide by 29 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: Adelaide: 85.3, Geelong: 70.8 – (Geelong by 14.5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: Adelaide: 53.3, Geelong: 58.5 – (Geelong by 5.2 points)
• Average Losing Margin: Adelaide: 1.0, Geelong: 8.0 – (Adelaide more resilient by 7 points)
• HT/FT Double %: Adelaide: 75.0%, Geelong: 50.0% – (Adelaide by 25%)
• Highest Score For: Adelaide: 161, Geelong: 147 – (Adelaide by 14 points)
• Highest Score Against: Adelaide: 100, Geelong: 98 – (Geelong by 2 points)
• Biggest Win: Adelaide: 63, Geelong: 78 – (Geelong by 15 points)
• Biggest Loss: Adelaide: 1, Geelong: 9 – (Adelaide more resilient by 8 points)
• Highest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 261, Geelong: 216 – (Adelaide by 45 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: Adelaide: 181, Geelong: 131 – (Adelaide by 50 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: Adelaide: 70.6%, Geelong: 64.0% – (Adelaide by 6.6%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: Adelaide: 58.1%, Geelong: 59.4% – (Adelaide by 1.3%)
• Current Streak: Adelaide: L1, Geelong: W1 – (Geelong momentum)
• Current Form: Adelaide: WWWL, Geelong: WLLW – (Adelaide edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 25.0%, Geelong: 33.3% – (Adelaide by 8.3%)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): Adelaide: 75.0%, Geelong: 66.7% – (Adelaide by 8.3%)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): Adelaide: 0.0%, Geelong: 0.0% – (Even)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Geelong won by 5 points (90-85) on 3rd August 2024
• Previous Encounter: Geelong won by 19 points (96-77) on 22nd March 2024