Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Prediction

Game 7 of Round 15 of the 2025 AFL Premiership on June 22 features the Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Get the latest AFL betting tips, predictions, and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers Predictions

Sunday, June 22, 2025

3:20pm @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

Final Score Prediction

Bulldogs

83 : 66

Tigers

Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium presents the most lopsided contest of the round on paper, yet another massive betting opportunity emerges.

The Western Bulldogs host a struggling Richmond outfit, and while the statistics suggest a comfortable home win, the 48.5 point line creates extraordinary value for backing the Tigers.

Win Percentages

Bulldogs
68.34%

Tigers
31.66%

The Market Check

The bookmakers have created the most extreme line of the season, with Western Bulldogs giving up a staggering 48.5 points despite our model predicting just a 17-point margin.

Richmond’s double-digit odds reflect their bottom-of-the-ladder status, but the handicap market presents incredible value.

Bulldogs

Tigers

Why Western Bulldogs Should Win

The statistics paint a clear picture – Western Bulldogs sit 2nd on the ladder while Richmond languish in 18th place. The Dogs average an incredible 37.6 more points scored and concede 13.7 fewer points per game.

With a 31% better win rate and playing at their preferred Marvel Stadium venue, the Bulldogs should cruise to victory.

Head-to-Head Analysis

The gulf in class is enormous:

Attack: Bulldogs averaging 37.6 points more per game
Defence: Dogs conceding 13.7 points less per game
Power Rankings: Western Bulldogs 2nd vs Richmond 18th
Win Rate: 31% better record for the Bulldogs
The Opportunity: 17-point predicted margin vs 48.5-point line

Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout but low-scoring
Expected Total: Around 149 points – lean towards the unders

Our Betting Strategy

Safe Play: Bulldogs to Win

Bulldogs @ $1.03

Virtually no return but as close to a certainty as you’ll find. Only suitable for massive multi-bets where you need guaranteed results.

Monster Value: Tigers +48.5

Richmond +48.5 @ $1.88

The value bet of the weekend! Getting 8 goals start when we predict just a 17-point margin is absolutely enormous. Richmond won’t win, but they should stay much closer than this.

Lottery Ticket: Tigers Upset

Tigers @ $11.00

For the dreamers only! Richmond have a 31.66% chance according to our model, making 11-1 odds mathematically appealing for those who enjoy long shots.

The Marvel Stadium Factor

The Bulldogs love playing under the roof at Marvel, where they can control the tempo and utilize their superior skills. Richmond’s struggles this season have been well-documented, but 48.5 points is an enormous margin in modern football.

The low-scoring prediction suggests defensive pressure will keep this tighter than the bookmakers expect.

The Bottom Line

While the Bulldogs should win comfortably, the 48.5 point line is simply too much. This continues the round’s theme of inflated handicaps creating exceptional value opportunities.

Richmond +48.5 is the play – getting over 8 goals start for any AFL team is remarkable value, even against a top-2 side.

Remember to gamble responsibly.