Warriors vs Broncos Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7

New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Predictions

Game 4 of Round 7 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 19 features the Warriors vs Broncos at Go Media Stadium on Saturday evening. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel. 🏉🔥

Saturday, April 19, 2025

5:30 pm @ Go Media Stadium, Auckland

Final Score Prediction

Warriors

21 : 24

Broncos

Win Percentages

Warriors 42.34%

Broncos 57.66%

Warriors

Broncos

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for New Zealand Warriors is set at $3.10, and $1.38 for the Brisbane Broncos, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Warriors 30.80%
Broncos 69.20%

Opportunity Bet

The bookies are pretty confident in the Broncos here, but we’ve run the numbers and the gap isn’t quite as wide as they’re making it out to be. The Warriors might just be offering up a bit of sneaky value in this one.

So here’s where things get interesting, the market has heavily backed the Broncos, giving them a 69.20% chance to win. But based on our model, we think they’re more like 57.66%. Still favourites, sure, but not as dominant as the bookies would suggest.

On the flip side, the Warriors are getting short-changed. Bookies reckon they only win this 30.80% of the time, but we give them a much stronger 42.34% chance. That means their true odds should be around $2.36, but they’re being offered at $3.10.

That’s a solid edge, definitely one to keep on the radar for punters chasing value.

What to do?

Broncos are still our favourites to get the win, but the market has pushed them too far out in front. With the Warriors rated much higher by our model than the bookies think, there’s a clear value edge at $3.10 for the upset.

If you’re not quite ready to back the Warriors outright (we’re not), that +8.5 line is a solid safety net in what should be a pretty tight contest, the Broncos are scoring an average of 30.67 points away from home, however its worth noting that the Warriors at home are not only a whole other beast, but they are also keeping it tight at home with home average points sitting at 25.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Warriors +8.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Broncos @ $1.38 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Broncos 1-12 @ $3.25 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 46.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

Warriors vs Broncos SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Warriors: 19.6, Broncos: 30.0 – (Broncos by 10.4 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Warriors: 23.6, Broncos: 20.7 – (Broncos by 2.9 points)
Average Winning Margin: Warriors: 10.0, Broncos: 19.0 – (Broncos by 9 points)
Average Losing Margin: Warriors: 25.0, Broncos: 10.0 – (Broncos by 15 points)
HT/FT Double %: Warriors: 20.0%, Broncos: 66.7% – (Broncos by 46.7%)
Highest Score For: Warriors: 36, Broncos: 50 – (Broncos by 14 points)
Highest Score Against: Warriors: 42, Broncos: 32 – (Broncos by 10 points)
Biggest Win: Warriors: 20, Broncos: 36 – (Broncos by 16 points)
Biggest Loss: Warriors: 28, Broncos: 10 – (Broncos more resilient by 18 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Warriors: 56, Broncos: 70 – (Broncos by 14 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Warriors: 20, Broncos: 32 – (Broncos by 12 points)
Current Streak: Warriors: L1, Broncos: L1 – (Even momentum)
Current Form: Warriors: LWWWL, Broncos: LWWWL – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Warriors: 0.0%, Broncos: 0.0% – (Even)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Warriors: 100.0%, Broncos: 100.0% – (Even)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Warriors: 33.3%, Broncos: 0.0% – (Warriors by 33.3%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Warriors won by 16 points (32-16) on 29th June 2024