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Storm vs Rabbitohs Prediction
Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Predictions
Game 4 of Round 8 of the 2026 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 25 features the Storm vs Rabbitohs at AAMI Park on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now.
Friday, April 25, 2026
8:10 pm @ AAMI Park Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
Storm30 : 16
Rabbitohs 
Win Percentages
Storm 64.82%
Rabbitohs 35.18%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for Melbourne Storm is set at $1.20, and $4.50 for the South Sydney Rabbitohs, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Opportunity Bet
The bookies are giving the Storm a massive nod, handing them a 78.96% chance of grabbing the win. But our numbers say they’re still strong favourites, just not by quite that much, we’ve got them at 64.82%.
That opens up some sneaky value on the Bunnies. The market reckons Souths have just a 21.04% shot, but we’ve got them closer to 35.18%. That’s a solid difference and one worth jumping on if you like an underdog flutter.
Based on our numbers, the Rabbitohs should be more like $2.84, but they’re sitting at $4.50 with Unibet. That’s a juicy price and a clear value play if our read holds up.
No doubt the Storm are tough to beat, especially at home, but the Rabbitohs are being written off a bit too much. Backing Souths at $4.50 offers great value if you’re backing our analysis.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s check how the two sides stack up:
- Overall Power Ranking: Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 16th
- Score Rank (Home vs Away): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 8th
- Balanced Power Score: Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 15th
- Points For (Home): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 16th
- Points Against (Home): Storm 6th vs Rabbitohs 13th
- Win % Rank (Home): Storm 1st vs Rabbitohs 9th
- Total Power Rank Score: Storm 1.83 vs Rabbitohs 12.83
What to do?
The Storm have been dominant across the board, especially at home. That said, even the best teams drop games occasionally, and our numbers show the Rabbitohs are a better shot than their odds suggest.
However…
Storm are highly unlikely to let two games in a row slip between their fingers, and away from home the Rabbitohs have one of the worst power ranks and Points for when playing away.
Though a little risky take the Storm at -14.5 for the most value, be weary of the OVER/UNDER here as its a little too close to our estimate for us to be comfortable placing a bet on it, Safest bet here is Storm 13+ winning margin at $1.75.
Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Storm by 17.6
- Average Points Against Per Match: Rabbitohs by 1
- Power Rank: Storm by 8
- Average Winning Margin: Rabbitohs by 5
- SoS Adjusted Points For: Storm by 20
- Win Percentage: Storm by 10%
- Average Opponent Rank: Storm by 5
- Average Opponent Win Percentage: Storm by 7%
- Average Opponent Points For: Rabbitohs by 8
- Highest Score For: Storm by 28
- Highest Score Against: Rabbitohs by 10
- Highest Total Match Score: Storm by 25
- Lowest Total Match Score: Storm by 8
- Adjusted Points For: Storm by 20
- Adjusted Points Against: Rabbitohs by 9
- True Power Score (Weighted): Storm by 8
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 51.1
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
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