Sea Eagles vs Dragons Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7

Sea Eagles vs St. George Illawarra Dragons Predictions

Game 1 of Round 7 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 17 features the Sea Eagles vs Dragons at 4 Pines Park on Thursday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Thursday, April 17, 2025

7:50 pm @ 4 Pines Park, Sydney

Final Score Prediction

Sea Eagles

27 : 20

Dragons

Win Percentages

Sea Eagles 56.91%

Dragons 43.09%

Sea Eagles

Dragons

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Manly Sea Eagles is set at $1.60, and $2.35 for the St. George Illawarra Dragons, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Sea Eagles 59.49%
Dragons 40.51%

Opportunity Bet

This match between Manly Sea Eagles and St George Illawarra Dragons is shaping up to be a tight one, and we reckon there’s a little edge to be found on the Dragons side if you dig into the numbers.

So, here’s the thing, the bookies are leaning a bit too hard on the Sea Eagles, giving them close to a 60% chance of winning. But our take, based on form, stats, and recent results, suggests it’s closer to 57%.

On the flip side, the Dragons are slightly underrated. Bookies are giving them just a 40.51% chance, but we reckon it’s more like 43%. That gives us a small but cheeky little edge.

All up, there’s a little value floating around on the Dragons, especially if you’re thinking they can keep it close or even sneak the win. The line at +3.5 and the 1–12 winning margin are both worth a look if you’re keen for the Dragons (we are not).

What to do?

The Sea Eagles are playing significantly better at home, than the Dragons are at playing away, taking into account their power rankings, home and away average points for and conceded points, the Sea Eagles should have this one in the bag, take the Sea Eagles at the +3.5 handicap line for value, or go the Sea Eagles 1-12 winning margin if you’re feeling a little more risky.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Sea Eagles +3.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Sea Eagles @ $1.60 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $3.40 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 49.5 @ $1.89 with
bet365

Sea Eagles vs Dragons SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Sea Eagles: 27.7, Dragons: 23.6 – (Sea Eagles by 4.1 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Sea Eagles: 24.0, Dragons: 20.0 – (Dragons by 4.0 points)
Average Winning Margin: Sea Eagles: 24.0, Dragons: 14.0 – (Sea Eagles by 10 points)
Average Losing Margin: Sea Eagles: 16.7, Dragons: 3.3 – (Dragons by 13.4 points)
HT/FT Double %: Sea Eagles: 50.0%, Dragons: 20.0% – (Sea Eagles by 30%)
Highest Score For: Sea Eagles: 42, Dragons: 38 – (Sea Eagles by 4 points)
Highest Score Against: Sea Eagles: 48, Dragons: 28 – (Dragons by 20 points)
Biggest Win: Sea Eagles: 30, Dragons: 22 – (Sea Eagles by 8 points)
Biggest Loss: Sea Eagles: 24, Dragons: 8 – (Dragons more resilient by 16 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles: 72, Dragons: 54 – (Sea Eagles by 18 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Sea Eagles: 38, Dragons: 22 – (Sea Eagles by 16 points)
Current Streak: Sea Eagles: L2, Dragons: W1 – (Dragons momentum)
Current Form: Sea Eagles: LWWLL, Dragons: LLWLW – (Even)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Sea Eagles: 0.0%, Dragons: 66.7% – (Sea Eagles by 66.7%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Sea Eagles: 100.0%, Dragons: 33.3% – (Sea Eagles by 66.7%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Sea Eagles: 0.0%, Dragons: 50.0% – (Dragons by 50%)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Sea Eagles won by 16 points (30-14) on 16th June 2024