Dolphins vs Storm Prediction & Betting Analysis Round 7- KRUZEY

Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm Predictions

Game 3 of Round 7 of the 2025 NRL Telstra Premiership on April 18 features the Dolphins vs Storm at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night. Get the latest NRL betting tips predictions and analysis right here, and catch the game live on Kayo, Foxtel, Nine, and Nine Now. 🏉🔥

Friday, April 18, 2025

8:00 pm @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Final Score Prediction

Dolphins

24 : 35

Storm

Win Percentages

Dolphins 34.26%

Storm 65.74%

Dolphins

Storm

Quick Insight

At the time of writing bet365 had the head to head for Dolphins is set at $4.35, and $1.22 for the Melbourne Storm, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:

Dolphins 21.90%
Storm 78.10%

Opportunity Bet

We’ve got a heavy favourite in this one with Melbourne Storm tipped to take care of business, but when we compare the bookies’ odds with our own analysis, there’s a bit of a story unfolding around the value side, the Dolphins.

Now, the bookies are pricing the Storm like it’s a near certainty, giving them over a 78% chance of winning. But our model has them at around 65.74%, which is still strong, but not ‘that’ dominant.

That’s a big gap, and it means the Dolphins are being seriously underrated. We give them a 34.26% chance of getting up, which suggests their true odds should be closer to $2.92. But the market has them way out at $4.35.

That’s a massive value difference, and for the savvy punters out there, it opens up a genuine long-shot opportunity. If our numbers are anywhere near the mark, a play on the Dolphins has long-term value written all over it.

While the Storm are deserved favourites, the Dolphins aren’t as far behind as the odds suggest. Our data shows a massive value gap, making the Dolphins a high-upside underdog play. Even if you don’t see them winning outright, the +13.5 line or a 1-12 margin flutter could give you a decent shot at a return.

If you’re looking for a roughie with some edge, the Dolphins are offering serious bang for your buck in this one.

What to do?

Storm on the nose holds little value, the Dolphins at +13.5 points is an unexpected solid bet this week, sliding in by the skin of their teeth with a predicted 11 point win by the Storm. The prediction model is expecting a total points of 59 for this game so taking the OVER 48.5 is the way to go. Taking the Storm by the 1-12 winning margin definitely gives you more value for money but the bet is significantly more risky.

Suggested Betting Tip:

Dolphins +13.5 @ $1.91 with
bet365

H-2-H Bet:

Storm @ $1.22 with
bet365

Winning Margin Bet:

Storm 1-12 @ $3.50 with
bet365

OVER/UNDER Bet:

OVER 48.5 @ $1.82 with
bet365

Dolphins vs Storm SGM

Head-to-Head Stats

Average Points For Per Match: Dolphins: 20.3, Storm: 36.8 – (Storm by 16.5 points)
Average Points Against Per Match: Dolphins: 19.0, Storm: 18.8 – (Storm by 0.2 points)
Average Winning Margin: Dolphins: 22.0, Storm: 24.0 – (Storm by 2 points)
Average Losing Margin: Dolphins: 9.0, Storm: 6.0 – (Storm by 3 points)
HT/FT Double %: Dolphins: 33.3%, Storm: 80.0% – (Storm by 46.7%)
Highest Score For: Dolphins: 36, Storm: 56 – (Storm by 20 points)
Highest Score Against: Dolphins: 30, Storm: 24 – (Storm by 6 points)
Biggest Win: Dolphins: 26, Storm: 38 – (Storm by 12 points)
Biggest Loss: Dolphins: 14, Storm: 6 – (Storm more resilient by 8 points)
Highest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 48, Storm: 74 – (Storm by 26 points)
Lowest Total Match Score: Dolphins: 30, Storm: 22 – (Storm by 8 points)
Current Streak: Dolphins: W2, Storm: W2 – (Even momentum)
Current Form: Dolphins: LLLWW, Storm: WWLWW – (Storm edge)
Choke % (Loss % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 33.3%, Storm: 20.0% – (Storm by 13.3%)
Reliability % (Win % After Leading HT): Dolphins: 66.7%, Storm: 80.0% – (Storm by 13.3%)
Comeback % (Win % After Trailing HT): Dolphins: 0.0%, Storm: N/A – (Dolphins lower)
Last Encounter Winner and Margin: Storm won by 42 points (48-6) on 24th August 2024