Game 4 of Round 10 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 17 sees Port Adelaide vs Geelong at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats Predictions
Saturday, May 17, 2026
4:15 pm AEDT @ Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Final Score Prediction
Port Adelaide
79 : 86
Geelong
Win Percentages
Port Adelaide45.51%
Geelong54.49%
Power
Cats
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the Geelong Cats set at $2.18, and $1.68 for the GWS GIANTS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Power
43.54%
Cats
56.46%
The Betting Edge
Unibet’s got Geelong at $1.68, translating to a 56.46% implied win probability, while Port Adelaide are paying $2.18, meaning the market’s only giving them a 43.54% chance.
But here’s where it gets interesting, our model has Geelong at a 54.49% chance and Port at 45.51%, so while it still favours the Cats, it doesn’t rate them quite as highly as the market does. That tiny gap means the value’s not really on Geelong… but if you’re keen on backing form and metrics, they’re still the stronger side across most categories.
No huge betting edge either way, but the Cats’ overall consistency and defensive edge makes them a justifiable favourite.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
Port Adelaide vs Geelong Head-to-Head Stats
Average Points For Per Match: Geelong by 12.3 points
Average Points Against Per Match: Geelong by 10 points
Power Rank: Geelong by 4
Average Winning Margin: Port Adelaide by 0.55 points
Strength of Schedule Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 4 points
Win %: Geelong by 11%
Average Opponent Ladder Rank: Geelong by 1 rank
Average Opponent Win %: Port Adelaide by 9%
Average Opponent Points For: Port Adelaide by 5 points
Highest Score For: Geelong by 7 points
Highest Score Against: Geelong by 31 points
Highest Total Match Score: Geelong by 7 points
Lowest Total Match Score: Geelong by 1 point
Adjusted Points For: Geelong by 4 points
Adjusted Points Against: Geelong by 7 points
True Power Score (Weighted): Geelong by 5.4
OVER/UNDER Tempo: 179.7
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout
Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): Port Adelaide: 7.83, Geelong: 7.17 – (Geelong by 0.66)
Over/Under Tempo: This one could open right up, with both sides pushing the scoring.
Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout. If Geelong get rolling early, they’ve got the firepower to completely pull away.
What to do?
Geelong are the more complete side, stronger in attack, better at defending, and a bit more reliable when it counts. At $1.68, there’s not a heap of value, but it’s still a fair price for a side with the edge in most key metrics.
There’s not quite enough mispricing to make Port worth the punt at $2.18 unless you’re banking on a momentum swing or emotional edge. For straight-up punters, the Cats are the smarter bet, but maybe not the most profitable one unless you’re parlaying or playing the margin.
Best bet is to take the Geelong +6.5.
As for multis, take the Geelong -6.5, UNDER 179.5, Geelong 1-39 for $4.60 with Unibet.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly AFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy.
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