North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction

The Betting Edge

The Suns are clear favourites, no argument there, but the bookies might be laying it on a bit thick. They’ve got the Suns winning this 75.09% of the time, while our numbers suggest it’s more like 65.5%. Still strong, but not *that* strong.

Now here’s where it gets interesting, the Kangaroos. The bookies have priced them like they’ve got almost no chance (just 24.91%), but our model gives them a 34.5% shot. That’s a decent jump. And at $3.80 odds, there’s some sneaky value sitting there for anyone brave enough to back the underdog.

In Summary

While the Suns should get the job done, there’s a bit of a betting edge in favour of North Melbourne. Our numbers say they’ve got a better shot than the bookies are giving them credit for, making that $3.80 looks pretty tasty. If you’re keen on chasing value and don’t mind a bit of risk, the Roos might just be worth a cheeky punt.

Head-to-Head Stats

• Average Points For Per Match: North Melbourne: 88.0, Gold Coast: 115.7 – (Gold Coast by 27.7 points)
• Average Points Against Per Match: North Melbourne: 102.5, Gold Coast: 67.0 – (Gold Coast by 35.5 points)
• Average Winning Margin: North Melbourne: 59.0, Gold Coast: 48.7 – (North Melbourne by 10.3 points)
• Average Losing Margin: North Melbourne: 39.0, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast edge)
• HT/FT Double %: North Melbourne: 25.0%, Gold Coast: 66.7% – (Gold Coast by 41.7%)
• Highest Score For: North Melbourne: 125, Gold Coast: 136 – (Gold Coast by 11 points)
• Highest Score Against: North Melbourne: 117, Gold Coast: 90 – (Gold Coast by 27 points)
• Biggest Win: North Melbourne: 59, Gold Coast: 87 – (Gold Coast by 28 points)
• Biggest Loss: North Melbourne: 65, Gold Coast: N/A – (Gold Coast edge)
• Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 210, Gold Coast: 185 – (North Melbourne by 25 points)
• Lowest Total Match Score: North Melbourne: 169, Gold Coast: 181 – (North Melbourne by 12 points)
• Goal Accuracy For %: North Melbourne: 67.9%, Gold Coast: 59.3% – (North Melbourne by 8.6%)
• Goal Accuracy Against %: North Melbourne: 61.0%, Gold Coast: 58.0% – (Gold Coast by 3.0%)
• Current Streak: North Melbourne: L2, Gold Coast: W3 – (Gold Coast momentum)
• Current Form: North Melbourne: LWLL, Gold Coast: WWW – (Gold Coast edge)
• Choke % (Loss % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 0.0% – (Even)
• Reliability % (Win % After Leading At HT): North Melbourne: 100.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Even)
• Comeback % (Win % After Trailing At HT): North Melbourne: 0.0%, Gold Coast: 100.0% – (Gold Coast by 100%)
• Last Encounter Winner and Margin: North Melbourne won by 4 points (87-83) on 6th July 2024
• Previous Encounter: Gold Coast won by 68 points (120-52) on 11th May 2024