AFL Betting Tips Round 7
Nine games across four days – and the biggest disagreement…
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Prediction
Game 5 of Round 11 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions on May 24 sees North Melbourne vs Collingwood at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night. You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies Predictions
Saturday, May 24, 2026
7:35 pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Final Score Prediction
77 : 83
Win Percentages
Kangaroos 36.41%
Magpies 63.59%
Quick Insight
At the time of writing Unibet had the head to head for the North Melbourne Kangaroos set at $5.75, and $1.13 for the Collingwood Magpies, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
The Betting Edge
This one’s a classic David vs Goliath scenario, but the numbers suggest it might not be quite as lopsided as the bookies think.
Unibet’s got North Melbourne out at $5.75, which translates to an implied probability of just 16.42%. Meanwhile, Collingwood are the heavy favourites at $1.13, or 83.58% implied. But hold up, our analysis gives the Kangaroos a 36.41% chance of knocking off the Magpies, while Collingwood’s actual win likelihood sits at 63.59%.
That’s a massive gap. If our numbers are anywhere close to the mark, North’s true odds should be more like $2.75, not the sky-high $5.75 they’re being offered at right now.
Here’s the kicker: that kind of discrepancy creates a massive value opportunity. Sure, North are underdogs, but they’re nowhere near as far out of it as the market thinks.
North Melbourne are way undervalued, and if our analysis holds up, $5.75 is incredible value for a side that’s much more in the contest than the odds suggest.
Power Rankings Breakdown
Let’s see how the two teams stack up across the board:
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Head-to-Head Stats
- Average Points For Per Match: Collingwood by 9.9
- Average Points Against Per Match: Collingwood by 28
- Power Rank: Collingwood by 12
- Average Winning Margin: Collingwood by 1.25
- SoS Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 3
- Win Percentage: Collingwood by 60%
- Average Opponent Rank: Collingwood by 4
- Average Opponent Win %: North Melbourne by 28%
- Average Opponent Points For: North Melbourne by 5
- Highest Score For: Collingwood by 11
- Highest Score Against: Collingwood by 49
- Highest Total Match Score: North Melbourne by 37
- Lowest Total Match Score: Collingwood by 18
- Adjusted Points For: North Melbourne by 3
- Adjusted Points Against: Collingwood by 22
- True Power Score (Weighted): Collingwood by 9
- OVER/UNDER Tempo: 168.6
- Game Style Prediction: Likely Blowout – Low Scoring
- Average Opposition Ladder Rank: North Melbourne: 10, Collingwood: 6 – (Collingwood by 4)
- Total Power Rank Score (Lower is Better): North Melbourne: 10.67, Collingwood: 7.67 – (Collingwood by 3)
Over/Under Tempo: Mid-range tempo expected; steady ball movement with potential scoring lulls.
Game Style Prediction: Likely blowout. Expect dominant control from one side with overall low scoreboard impact.
What to do?
Unless the football gods throw a lightning bolt at the field and knock out half of Collingwood’s team on Saturday they will more than likely win. however, there is little to no value on placing a bet on the pies, Best bet is to take the North Melbourne +34.5 this game.
As for multis, take the North Melbourne +34.5, UNDER 175.5, Collingwood 1-39 for $4.25 with Unibet.
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Tips
North Melbourne vs Collingwood Multi Tip:
North Melbourne +34.5
UNDER 175.5
Collingwood 1-39
@ $4.25 with Unibet
Related:
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